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Pre-Tour Ishka Media Briefing • Monday 12th October, 12:30 BST.
Before Ishka embarks on its World Tour, we are holding a special media briefing with six of our key speakers on the state of commercial aviation and aircraft finance market with an open Q&A session for journalists.
Please email: Fiona Benharoosh for details. [email protected]
DAY 1 • Monday 12th October
Opening Show | Market Update and Forecasting
Global Welcome Broadcast Video 14:00 GMT
What is the new normal? The global industry forecast 14:10 GMT (15 Minute Keynote)
- When and how will leisure and business travel recover?
- Exploring where demand for international travel will be in the next 12-18 months. When can the industry expect demand to bounce back to 2019 levels?
- What is the economic outlook of the travel and freighter industry today and in the near future?
Inside the race for a Covid-19 vaccine (10 Minute Presentation)
- What are the current viable prospects for an effective vaccine and how quickly could it be globally distributed?
- Exploring where the virus has most effectively been contained.
Keynote airline panel: Fleets, new debt opportunities and the future (Panel Discussion)
- What are the most important considerations for fleet restructuring and planning over the next six months?
- What is the reality of working with lenders and lessors in the current market?
- Can investors fill the current funding gap?
What to do with excess aircraft: Supply and demand scenario forecasting (Presentation)
- How will the market address the level of surplus aircraft in circulation?
- Discussing the Ishka forecast of order and retirement curves.
View from the C-Suite across aviation finance (Keynote Panel)
- Surviving the crisis - how have lenders and lessors managed their existing portfolios?
- What do investors need to know and what are their key questions.
- How to balance existing portfolio requirements and new investment opportunities.
- Surviving the crisis - uncovering the most impressive innovations and biggest surprises during the pandemic.
- How do you think 2020 will compare to 2021?
Networking Think Tank: How will the industry have to evolve? (Networking Session)
- Leveraging the data and discussion of the day, how can the industry best manoeuvre itself in the new normal?
- What will leasing companies look like moving forward? What changes can the industry expect?
This session will split delegates into smaller groups to share their opinion and forge new ideas. Each group has a moderator who will present their group’s key takeaways in a quick panel recap.
VIP Keynote - TBA (Presentation)
DAY 2 • Tuesday 13th October
Updates from the Pacific: Hong Kong, China and Korea
Greenshoots or Red Herrings? Current outlook of Asian Aviation (Presentation)
- Exploring the pattern of load factors in China throughout the crisis to date.
- An overview of regional airline health and government support.
- What is the economic growth forecast for Asia?
Opportunities for Korean investors today (Panel Discussion)
- Exploring aviation opportunities for Korean investors in the market.
- Which lenders/investors are still active in this space?
What deals will lenders support? (Panel Discussion)
- What is the current credit and syndication appetite among banks?
- Examining what it will take for the banks to return to the aviation market.
- What are typical spreads and LTVs today?
- How are lessors and airlines sourcing liquidity at this stage?
The next steps for Asia’s aviation hubs (Panel Discussion)
The debate over where Asia’s next hub for aviation finance is not a new one. Has the crisis catalysed change for Asia’s next aviation hub?
How different is the Chinese leasing market to the rest of the world? (Panel Discussion)
- How are Chinese lessors shifting their strategic focus over a short period of time?
- How have Chinese lessors adapted to a significant fall in residual values?
- Exploring the impact that the ARJ21 will have on the domestic market.
Networking Session - TBD (Networking Session)
Leading the Crisis: Fireside Chat (Interview-style Discussion)
DAY 3 • Wednesday 14th October
Live in Tokyo | JOLCO and Investor Appetites
Unpacking Japan’s current investor appetite, airline health and economic outlook (Presentation)
- An overview of the region’s industry forecast.
How severe is the JOL and JOLCO market slowdown? (Panel Discussion)
- How has the JOL and JOLCO market been tested and what is the investor appetite for both?
- How have JOL and JOLCOs dealt with rent deferral requests?
Investing in infrastructure finance: Private airports (Panel Discussion - Japanese Language)
- Exploring the opportunities in aircraft finance and infrastructure finance with airport privatisation.
- Where do investors see opportunities?
- How do airports approach full service vs low-cost carriers?
What is the risk appetite for regional banks and insurance providers to financial institutions? (Panel Discussion - Japanese Language)
- Unpicking how banks and financial institutions view the recovery of the industry.
- How do the regional banks read current values? Do they see opportunity in depressed values?
- What is their appetite for JOL and JOLCO?
How are lessors and investors impacted by Chapter 11 airline bankruptcies? (Presentation - Japanese Language)
- How do airline bankruptcies like LatAm impact JOLCOs?
- What limitations should investors be aware of?
- The benefits and limitations of the Cape Town Convention with regard to bankrutpcies.
TBD (Networking Session)
The future for Japanese investors (Keynote Presentation)
- How has this crisis tempered investor risk appetites?
- Where do they see the opportunities?
- What is the future for equity investors?
- Have any JOLCOs been successfully restructured?
DAY 4 • Thursday 15th October
Europe | The Metal and Money
The European outlook (Presentation)
- Examining the credit health of Europe’s airlines.
- What is the economic outlook for the region?
- What is the credit and investment appetite for aviation in Europe?
Just wait and see? A European banker’s perspective (Panel Discussion)
- What is the general credit appetite among banks?
- Are banks willing and able to syndicate?
- Exploring bank lending strategies post Covid and Basel IV.
- How have terms changed and what can borrowers expect?
Precious metal: Understanding assets from an investor perspective (Panel Discussion)
- Which aircraft types will bounce back and where will new opportunities be?
- How is widebody performance expected to impact their long-term market value? Will they return to a growth trajectory?
- Exploring whether the A220 is designed as a narrowbody or regional aircraft. Do lessors expect it to recover more quickly than A320s and 737s?
What impact has an influx in supply had on the part-out market? (Panel Discussion)
- What effect will aircraft surplus have on repair facilities?
- How will operators be impacted by increasing costs?
- Where do premiums still exist in the part out market?
When will the market see a surge in demand for spare engines? (Panel Discussion)
- When will airlines burn through green time and need spare engine capacity?
- How are engine lessors and investors adapting their strategies to cope with the market shifts since Covid-19?
- What are the risks and opportunities in the spare engine market?
The future of freighters: Which aircraft types will dominate the market? (Panel Discussion)
- Forecasting the freighter market - understanding the rush to conversion.
- How will factory freighters compete with converted freighters in the next few years? How does this affect residual values?
- Uncovering opportunity at the lower end of the spectrum for investors: turboprops, widebodies, engines etc.
The fruits of our LIBOR (Presentation)
- How are airlines able to prepare for new LIBOR terms?
- What do lessors and airlines need to know to prepare for LIBOR transitions in 2021 and why is it so important?
- Understanding the best way to derive a new term structure from the current structures circulating.
- Examining the pros and cons of different LIBOR term structures for airlines.
Networking session/Networking cocktails
Share your thoughts on the discussions of the day and make your own cocktails with Ishka’s resident mixologist and chairman Gehan.
When will the deferral season end for OEMs? (Keynote Panel)
- Exploring current production rates. What happens when production rates go into limbo?
- Which aircraft types are in oversupply with a lack of demand as a result of the Covid-19 crisis? What effect will this have on the lessors with these aircraft types in their portfolio?
- How are OEMs negotiating with airlines?
- What are OEM strategies for building and selling aircraft throughout the next 12 months.
DAY 5 • Friday 16th October
On the Tarmac I Airlines
Winter wonderland or bleak mid-winter for airlines? (Panel Discussion)
- Are airlines heading into winter from a position of strength or concern?
- What innovations do airlines need to make now?
- What strategies are airlines putting into place going forward? Exploring measures to reduce cash outflow and costs.
- Can the industry expect further government support for airlines this winter?
Understanding the long term impact of government support on airlines (Presentation - 10 minutes)
- Understanding the new airline debt load.
- What happens when government support packages for airlines run out? When is state support expected to dry up?
- How do state supported airlines compare to those who searched for alternative financing structures?
Incorporating ESG into new business models (Panel Discussion)
- Does ESG still matter to investors after Covid-19?
- How are European airlines fulfilling their obligations to the green initiatives from government bailouts?
- Exploring new technology that can assist with fulfilling these green initiatives.
Slots, gates and loyalty programmes: Boosting liquidity (Panel Discussion)
- Uncovering the innovative products airlines have utilised to inject cash into their businesses. How are these structures holding up?
Loyalty pays: A case study of United Airlines’ loyalty programme financing (Case Study)
A deep dive into United Airlines’ pioneering financing deal.
Slots, gates and loyalty programmes: How are Investors getting comfortable with new collateral? (Interview- style Discussion)
- What type of yields are investors getting out of new types of collateral?
- Exploring the legalities behind investing and owning new types of collateral.
- Are these new types of collateral secure if an airline enters bankruptcy? What value do they have if an airline enters bankruptcy?
- What can investors do to protect themselves in this market?
Lessons learned from airline restructurings (Panel Discussion)
- Informal vs formal restructurings: best practices and things to watch out for.
- What new debt and lease terms should lenders and lessors reasonably expect?
- How can lenders and lessors work more closely with airlines throughout the restructuring process?
- Exploring the options for Latin American airlines in the face of scarce government support.
Fleet planning in a crisis: What to keep and what to cut? (Panel Discussion)
- What aircraft are core to current airline fleets?
- Which aircraft are parked temporarily and permanently?
- How does the fleet restructuring strategy of a typical LCC compare to a legacy carrier?
- How have airlines adapted their maintenance needs while many aircraft are parked .
Networking Think Tank: Keeping happy and healthy remotely (Networking Session)
- What has your experience of remote working been?
- What should employers do to facilitate their staff’s well being?
- Has your company done anything unusual you would recommend to others?
New airlines spotlight (Panel Discussion)
- What will the airline market look like coming out of this crisis?
- What permanent changes will become apparent?
- Do increased airline bankruptcies create a gap in the market for new carriers?
DAY 6 • Monday 19th October
Dublin Aviation Finance Festival | Trading and Values
Aircraft trading: Finding premiums in the pandemic (Panel Discussion)
- What activity is actually happening in terms of asset trading? Who is purchasing aircraft?
- Where are sale and leasebacks happening?
- How do aircraft values compare to this time last year?
- Where is there oversupply in the market?
- Are any aircraft trading profitably, or have we reached the ‘bottom’?
- Exploring the pros and cons of extending leases on older assets versus buying new assets. (777X vs the 777-300ER)
Comparing the market: Post-crisis valuations (Panel Discussions)
The following questions will be discussed across four smaller sessions focusing on narrowbodies, widebodies, regionals and engines.
- Why have some appraisers downgraded their values while others haven’t?
- How have high appraisers altered their base values?
- How do appraisers continue making valuations going forward? How will values will look in two months vs two years?
- How has the MAX valuation changed since the outbreak of Covid-19?
Lessor portfolio strategies: Trading without an ABS market (Panel Discussion)
- What are lessors trading strategies for 2020/2021?
- How are aircraft being remarketed given residual value loss? Can lessors trade profitably?
- The lessor view of fleet management and restructuring.
- What needs to be considered when purchasing an aircraft in an unstable market?
- Which aircraft types are coming back into service?
- How can lessors/airlines mitigate risk against the aircraft types no longer in demand?
The Price is Right: Ishka valuation quiz (Networking)
Polling for Pricing Benchmark
How are airlines and lessors reporting and managing impairments? (Presentation)
- Understanding new accounting standards.
- How does this aid reporting?
- When do impairments need to be crystalised?
- How will this affect the sale of aircraft?
How will the industry cope with new debt waiver requests or potential lessor restructurings? (Panel/ Case Study)
- How have banks managed demands to adapt debt terms or covenants so far?
- How can banks and lessors work together to offer forbearance to airlines?
- How far are banks and investors willing to go to restructure debt?
How to repossess aircraft in lockdown (Presentation)
- Best practice for successful repossession.
- How can an aircraft owner safeguard records?
- Exploring how lessors can best prepare their repossessed assets in a saturated aircraft market.
- What have lessors experienced so far with repossessions?
- If a lot of aircraft are being returned, how do lessors model maintenance reserves?
DAY 7 • Tuesday 20th October
Dublin Aviation Finance Festival | Leasing into 2021
Middle Eastern airlines: How to best manage widebodies? (Keynote Panel)
- What's the strategy today for Middle Eastern airlines?
- How has recent levels of demand impacted route network analysis?
- How have airlines managed to work with leasing partners to help address costs and plan for the recovery?
Restructured airlines: What is happening to the leased aircraft?
- Uncovering the best case and worst-case scenarios.
- What should lenders, investors and arrangers be aware of?
- What should lenders, or lessors, concede or contest?
Lessor CEO panel: Forecasting with a murky crystal ball (20 min Panel Discussion + 10 min Q&A)
- How have lessor businesses changed in the last 6 months?
- How to balance relationships with airlines, investors and banks?
- What are the lessons learned?
- What is the plan when the asset value liquidity buffer dwindles?
- Uncovering how the cost of grounded aircraft is being managed by lessors.
The future of Diversity & Inclusion in aviation finance (Panel Discussion)
- Examining the current state of diversity and inclusion (D&I) in aviation finance.
- What can the industry be doing to improve diversity and inclusivity?
- What can be done to help the industry with D&I as they navigate redundancy and restructuring?
- Discussing the policies that key industry players can adopt to create the right workplace culture during this crisis.
- Exploring strategies to ensure that women and ethnic minorities don’t suffer the brunt of redundancies as the pandemic crisis develops.
Exploring airline bankruptcy scenarios in depth
- What are the distressed strategies for investors?
- Examining the arguments around a universal bankruptcy code.
How are engine lessors preparing for the boom? (Panel Discussion)
- Why the Covid-19 crisis is very different for engine lessors compared to aircraft lessors.
- How long will the “green-time lull” last before demand rises?
- How have engine lessors evolved to meet the crisis?
- What pitfalls or opportunities lie in the spare engine market?
‘Be The Difference’ networking game
Fun, interactive quiz about bias.
Keynote: The future of aircraft leasing (Presentation)
DAY 8 • Wednesday 21st October
Live at the Capital Markets: Investing in the new Aviation Finance
Planes, trains and special purpose vehicles: Comparing aviation to other asset classes
- How has aviation fared vs other asset classes?
- Why aviation and why now? Why is it a special situation investment? Intrinsic and relative value in aviation investments?
- Should investors try to pick the bottom of the market?
Waiting in the sidelines: How do investors view the current aviation finance market?
- How do investor attitudes differ between the US, Europe and Asia?
- How will investors adjust their investment policies going forwards?
- Exploring the changes in investor risk attitudes.
Risk appetite: Something for everyone (Panel Discussion)
- Where has the industry seen the most activity happening in the market?
- Where are the sweet spots in debt, equity, ABS and EETCs?
- Uncovering asset and M&A opportunities for investors over the next 12 months.
The role of ECAs and supported finance in today’s COVID-19 world (Panel Discussion)
- How key is support from AFIC, PIIQ, Balthazar and ACG’s AFS product in attracting banking and investor attention to new deals? What support can they offer to investors?
- How are ECAs coping with claims on existing deals, whilst also supporting new deals?
- What does the future hold for ECAs and Support Finance in aviation finance?
Investor break-out session (Networking)
Networking and ask the expert room
What rights do investors have in an EETC? (Presentation)
- How did the LATAM aircraft rejection work administratively? What rights do investors have if an airline simply returns their aircraft?
- Do investors have a deficiency claim in an EETC?
- Exploring how investors should be looking to model EETCs going forward.
DAY 9 • Thursday 22nd October
New York | ABS
Wings over America: Regional market update (Keynote)
- What challenges have been faced whilst implementing the US CARES act?
- What is the outlook for airlines in the region?
- Forecasting the regional outlook for the Americas.
Aviation industry health check (Presentation)
An investment bank overview of the industry, the ABS and EETCs markets.
ABS shutdown: How are aircraft ABS performing and trading? (Panel Discussion)
- What is the latest in aircraft ABS performance?
- Are we seeing trading pick up in A and B notes?
- What are the stress points in current ABS portfolios?
- How have investor’s views changed on portfolio composition, diversification and services?
- If and when we see new deals, what will these look like?
- Discussing the experience of investors who recently bought C/E notes.
Rating in uncertain times (Panel Discussion)
- How do the rating agencies currently view the ABS market? Why have some deals been downgraded and others have not?
- How are ratings agencies viewing airlines as credits and aircrafts as assets?
- What potential is there for the recovery of e-notes?
- Discussing the possibility of senior tranches going below investment grade.
Investor Deal or No Deal: Game Show (Panel Discussion)
- Under what conditions will the aircraft ABS market re-open for new transactions?
- How to structure new deals: what is the right level of leverage, portfolio composition and structural protections needed to attract investors?
- New ABS deals vs a rise in private placements.
DAY 10 • Friday 23rd October
Last Show of the Tour | Innovations Ahead
Opportunities in the crisis: How can asset managers boost returns for investors? (Keynote Presentation)
- Unpicking the myth or reality of distressed aircraft sales.
- What and where are the engines of growth?
- Discussing where the next growth opportunity markets are. India? Indonesia? Vietnam?
- What was promising before Covid-19 and where should the industry look for returns now?
- What are unlevered equity returns today?
European carriers: Which assets to buy, keep or cut? (Keynote Panel)
- How are European operators rationalising or increasing fleets today?
- How do carriers view their existing leases and lending agreements vs new opportunities in the market?
- What is the plan for the year ahead?
Survivors and thrivers: Understanding the changing shape of airline risk
- Government bailouts: are they enough?
- What challenges do airline debt mountains pose?
- What key indicators are now important to monitor?
- How do your industry risk experts model scenarios?
Lenders’ Deal or No Deal: What does it take to say ‘yes’ today? (Panel Discussion)
- Ishka’s innovative game show panel in which lenders reveal deals they will chase or decline.
Key Training Sessions and Workshops
Throughout Ishka World Tour
As well as engaging networking sessions and industry-leading panel discussions, Ishka’s World Tour will host a number of in-depth training and educational workshops. These include:
Workshop: Unpicking “wobbly” aircraft values for investors
How can lenders and investors reliably gauge asset values in volatile times?
Workshop: Understanding airlines credits
How should lessors, lenders and investors adapt their credit models to correctly model the stresses facing airlines in the current environment?
Workshop: Getting to grips with airline restructurings
A legal workshop to help lenders, lessors and investors understand the common intricacies, and pitfalls when firms begin either formal or informal insolvency proceedings.
Workshop: How to engage your team in lockdown
Key tips and best practices in boosting team morale and productivity when working remotely.