Managing The Next Cycle

Will you be ready?

Dec 8, 2016
London, United Kingdom

Welcome to Managing the Next Cycle
Thursday 8th December, 2016

Denton's, Fleet Place, London EC4M 7WS
09:00 - 17.30, followed by drinks reception

Despite robust metrics and bullish forecasts, Ishka observes certain market signals which are cause for concern.
Our exclusive, invitation-only briefing gathers some of the most influential minds in the industry for a day of progressive research and debate - to tackle the critical question: has the multiyear run come to an end - and - if so, what do you need to do next?

Managing the Cycle has a twist
We will cut through the noise and establish some tangible facts, defining risks, signals and forecasting possible outcomes through unique scenario simulation sessions and data-led bespoke research.
The stage is set for open debate and sharing ideas through our interactive idea labs, so attendees are better prepared for what the future holds.

Four reasons why you should attend


1. Forward thinking

Unique scenario simulation sessions help you plan for future risks and opportunities by modelling hypothetical scenarios.

2. Exclusive and held under the Chatham House Rule
Capped attendance, (limited to 80 guests) provides an open environment for honest, senior debate.

3. Content and data driven
Bespoke research and data-led sessions deliver tangible insights unique to this event.

4. Innovative and interactive
Sessions formats that break the mould of tired panels and presentations, encouraging engagement and sharing ideas.

Any questions?
Please contact Tom Preselo, Head of Production: [email protected]



“A very pleasant and insightful experience - what a change from the regular conferences!”
Patrick den Elzen
Managing Director, Arena Aviation Capital
Patrick den Elzen
“Enjoyable - more interactive than the average conference and therefore more expert opinion - great”
Tony Whitty
Managing Director, Cabot Aviation
Tony Whitty
“Very creative, original aviation finance conference”
Michael Halaby
Head of Aviation Debt Origination - EMEA, Deutsche Bank
Michael  Halaby
“Presenters did a fantastic job of preparing. Very informative”
Andrew Kleeman
Managing Director Private Placements , Barings Asset Management
Andrew  Kleeman
“A thoroughly engaging day with insightful perspectives being shared by industry leaders”
Thomas Schmid
General Counsel, Intrepid Aviation Group
Thomas Schmid
“An innovative event that was well attended by respected aviation executives in an intimate setting that facilitated participation and the sharing of opinions and information. A great start by Ishka.”
Simon McLean
Independent consultant, Standard Chartered
Simon  McLean
“A refreshing format with great information and insight”
Steve Mason
Head of Aircraft Evaluation and Asset Strategy, Cit
Steve Mason
“A refreshing format with great information and insight”
Bruce Ansell
Head of Engine Leasing - Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc , Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation
Bruce  Ansell
“Great networking opportunities - small enough that everyone has a voice but large enough to include all the main players”
Kate Crawford
Associate Director, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU)
Kate Crawford
“A very well organised event attended by just the right mix and quantity of delegates. Hope to see more of these!”
Maximo Gainza
Manager, Market Analysis, Embraer
Maximo Gainza
“Great event with lively and open debate”
Frederic Surdon
Head of Asset Finance , Société Générale
Frederic Surdon

Location: London

  Main room

Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view




“Back to the future” Dislocations in the aviation industry to shape our future understanding of the next cycle

A reflection on the past to get an understanding of the behaviours of crisis; what are the leading signals? How do we monitor them and what are the metrics?

Defining key specific dynamics, drivers and leading indicators:

  • Economic factors (Traffic figures)
  • Values and lease rates
  • Aircraft ages and residual values (MV>BV)
  • Credit fundamentals- yields and spread margins

What conclusions and lessons can we draw from the past?

Case studies

Are there additional metrics that are less obvious?



A consolidation of the present: Where are we in the current cycle?

A quick fire snap shot of the current state of play

Airlines - profitability, key metrics (load factors (RPKs)

Macro - GDP forecasts, emergence of a “new middle income”, economic headwinds

Asset - asset values, pricing and residual values



Risk propagation: Tracking the flow of key information

This session will examine how risk spreads, looking at past crises and other industries and we will ask the audience to vote on key questions.

The audience will vote on their perception of risk factors and relevance to the current climate.

Financiers - who is under the most pressure? Who will face a funding problem if there is a dislocation?

Collateral and asset risks - where are the weakest links in terms of aircraft values? When and how could these accelerate?

Counterparty risk:

  • Macro risk factors: FX, IR, fuel prices
  • Counterparty risk: probability of airline default (by region and by airline type: LCC vs MLC; small, medium large; cargo; long haul vs short haul, etc.)
  • Collateral value risk by aircraft type. Subsets: technological risk, economic life risk
  • Geopolitical risk (e.g. terrorist attacks, wars)
  • Policy/Regulatory/Legal risk (e.g. Brexit, Central Bank intervention, Bank Regulation, Transatlantic Trade Agreement)
  • Exogenous shocks: epidemics (e.g. SARS), acts of nature (e.g. Icelandic volcano)



Morning coffee break



"The crystal ball"

Ishka will take you to the future, exploring some plausible scenarios, quantifying the leading risk factors and modelling the implications of each scenario.

Possible scenarios:

  • Shock to traffic demand and over overcapacity
  • Terrorism


  • Macro, GDP slump, propensity to travel, FX risk, oil prices


  • Profitability, counterparty risk, traffic figures- loads, yields, lease rates, asset values, book values



Networking lunch



Strategy labs: Strategic planning and management for the next cycle

The audience will split into focused groups, to encourage idea-sharing and interaction. How will key segments behave and how can management be prepared for the next cycle? -


  • Capacity management
  • Ability and speed to reduce capacity
  • Yield management- FX strategies
  • Balance sheet- leverage cash reserves to ride out a storm
  • Strategy- LCC vs long haul? Which strategy is best for countering a downturn
  • Assets- should they shift to older aircraft? Narrow or wide body?


  • Assets/ portfolio structure- lease terms/ extensions, current fleet mix, ability to change fleet
  • Counterparties- client mix
  • Liabilities- what is the best funding source moving forward?
  • Will consolidation be needed?
  • Are lessors equipped to see out a downturn?


  • To what extent can they adjust production rates if there is a downturn in demand?


  • Banks – asset based debt restructurings for airlines / lessors
  • EETC and ABS
  • Lessors – with airline customers (rent reductions, lease extensions)
  • Distressed investing opportunities



  • Tenors and lending appetite
  • Best approach to banking? Secured, unsecured? Syndication, advisory, distribution?
  • Cost of funding 
  • Attractiveness of aviation compared to other asset finance 

Capital markets

  • Effect on credit cycles and appetite for aircraft funding
  • Will spreads widen?
  • Impact on retail and institutional investors


  • Will they step in? Are they needed? 




Afternoon coffee break



The big debate: Has the industry entered into a new paradigm of super cycles?



The Ishka roundup



Networking drinks


Tewolde Gebremariam
Tewolde Gebremariam
Chief Executive Officer
Ethiopian Airlines
Suren Ratwatte
Suren Ratwatte
SriLankan Airlines
Richard Moody
Richard Moody
Managing Director, Global Co-Head Transportation, Infrastructure & Energy
Deutsche Bank
Nick  Hazeldine
Nick Hazeldine
Head Credit Risk
SMBC Aviation Capital
Nils Hallerstrom
Nils Hallerstrom
PK AirFinance
Eddy Pieniazek
Eddy Pieniazek
Head of Advisory
John Strickland
John Strickland
JLS Consulting
Steve Townend
Steve Townend
Chief Commercial Officer
Boc Aviation
andy Golub
andy Golub
CIT Commercial Air
Simon Finn
Simon Finn
Colin Bole
Colin Bole
SVP Commercial
Bombardier Aerospace
Eddy Pieniazek
Eddy Pieniazek
Head of Advisory
Ishka test
Robert Suhs
Robert Suhs
VP Sales
Magellan Aviation Group
Michel Dembinski
Michel Dembinski
Managing Director, Head of Aviation
MUFG Union Bank, N.A.
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