Managing The Next Cycle

Will you be ready?

Dec 8, 2016

London, United Kingdom

Welcome to Managing the Next Cycle
Thursday 8th December, 2016

Denton's, Fleet Place, London EC4M 7WS
09:00 - 17.30, followed by drinks reception

Despite robust metrics and bullish forecasts, Ishka observes certain market signals which are cause for concern.
Our exclusive, invitation-only briefing gathers some of the most influential minds in the industry for a day of progressive research and debate - to tackle the critical question: has the multiyear run come to an end - and - if so, what do you need to do next?

Managing the Cycle has a twist
We will cut through the noise and establish some tangible facts, defining risks, signals and forecasting possible outcomes through unique scenario simulation sessions and data-led bespoke research.
The stage is set for open debate and sharing ideas through our interactive idea labs, so attendees are better prepared for what the future holds.

Four reasons why you should attend

MANAGING THE NEXT CYCLE IS:

1. Forward thinking
Unique scenario simulation sessions help you plan for future risks and opportunities by modelling hypothetical scenarios.

2. Exclusive and held under the Chatham House Rule
Capped attendance, (limited to 80 guests) provides an open environment for honest, senior debate.

3. Content and data driven
Bespoke research and data-led sessions deliver tangible insights unique to this event.

4. Innovative and interactive
Sessions formats that break the mould of tired panels and presentations, encouraging engagement and sharing ideas.

Any questions?
Please contact Tom Preselo, Head of Production: [email protected]

TESTIMONIALS FROM OUR INAUGURAL EVENT

“A very pleasant and insightful experience - what a change from the regular conferences!”

Patrick den Elzen

Managing Director, Arena Aviation Capital

“Enjoyable - more interactive than the average conference and therefore more expert opinion - great”

Tony Whitty

Managing Director, Cabot Aviation

“Very creative, original aviation finance conference”

Michael Halaby

Head of Aviation Debt Origination - EMEA, Deutsche Bank

“Presenters did a fantastic job of preparing. Very informative”

Andrew Kleeman

Managing Director Private Placements , Barings Asset Management

“A thoroughly engaging day with insightful perspectives being shared by industry leaders”

Thomas Schmid

General Counsel, Intrepid Aviation Group

“An innovative event that was well attended by respected aviation executives in an intimate setting that facilitated participation and the sharing of opinions and information. A great start by Ishka.”

Simon McLean

Independent consultant, Standard Chartered

“A refreshing format with great information and insight”

Steve Mason

Head of Aircraft Evaluation and Asset Strategy, Cit

“A refreshing format with great information and insight”

Bruce Ansell

Head of Engine Leasing - Mitsubishi Corporation International (Europe) Plc , Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation

“Great networking opportunities - small enough that everyone has a voice but large enough to include all the main players”

Kate Crawford

Associate Director, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU)

“A very well organised event attended by just the right mix and quantity of delegates. Hope to see more of these!”

Maximo Gainza

Manager, Market Analysis, Embraer

“Great event with lively and open debate”

Frederic Surdon

Head of Asset Finance , Société Générale

Location: London

	Main room
09:15	More information Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view Plenary 09:15 Plenary Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view × Eddy Pieniazek Head of Advisory Ishka Next session: “Back to the future” Dislocations in the aviation industry to shape our future understanding of the next cycle
09:30	More information “Back to the future” Dislocations in the aviation industry to shape our future understanding of the next cycle A reflection on the past to get an understanding of the behaviours of crisis; what are the leading signals? How do we monitor them and what are the metrics? Defining key specific dynamics, drivers and leading indicators: Economic factors (Traffic figures) Values and lease rates Aircraft ages and residual values (MV>BV) Credit fundamentals- yields and spread margins What conclusions and lessons can we draw from the past? Case studies Are there additional metrics that are less obvious? Plenary 09:30 Plenary “Back to the future” Dislocations in the aviation industry to shape our future understanding of the next cycle × A reflection on the past to get an understanding of the behaviours of crisis; what are the leading signals? How do we monitor them and what are the metrics? Defining key specific dynamics, drivers and leading indicators: Economic factors (Traffic figures) Values and lease rates Aircraft ages and residual values (MV>BV) Credit fundamentals- yields and spread margins What conclusions and lessons can we draw from the past? Case studies Are there additional metrics that are less obvious? Simon Finn Senior Vice President DVB Bank Next session: A consolidation of the present: Where are we in the current cycle? Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
10:00	More information A consolidation of the present: Where are we in the current cycle? A quick fire snap shot of the current state of play Airlines - profitability, key metrics (load factors (RPKs) Macro - GDP forecasts, emergence of a “new middle income”, economic headwinds Asset - asset values, pricing and residual values Plenary 10:00 Plenary A consolidation of the present: Where are we in the current cycle? × A quick fire snap shot of the current state of play Airlines - profitability, key metrics (load factors (RPKs) Macro - GDP forecasts, emergence of a “new middle income”, economic headwinds Asset - asset values, pricing and residual values Next session: Risk propagation: Tracking the flow of key information Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
10:30	More information Risk propagation: Tracking the flow of key information This session will examine how risk spreads, looking at past crises and other industries and we will ask the audience to vote on key questions. The audience will vote on their perception of risk factors and relevance to the current climate. Financiers - who is under the most pressure? Who will face a funding problem if there is a dislocation? Collateral and asset risks - where are the weakest links in terms of aircraft values? When and how could these accelerate? Counterparty risk: Macro risk factors: FX, IR, fuel prices Counterparty risk: probability of airline default (by region and by airline type: LCC vs MLC; small, medium large; cargo; long haul vs short haul, etc.) Collateral value risk by aircraft type. Subsets: technological risk, economic life risk Geopolitical risk (e.g. terrorist attacks, wars) Policy/Regulatory/Legal risk (e.g. Brexit, Central Bank intervention, Bank Regulation, Transatlantic Trade Agreement) Exogenous shocks: epidemics (e.g. SARS), acts of nature (e.g. Icelandic volcano) Plenary 10:30 Plenary Risk propagation: Tracking the flow of key information × This session will examine how risk spreads, looking at past crises and other industries and we will ask the audience to vote on key questions. The audience will vote on their perception of risk factors and relevance to the current climate. Financiers - who is under the most pressure? Who will face a funding problem if there is a dislocation? Collateral and asset risks - where are the weakest links in terms of aircraft values? When and how could these accelerate? Counterparty risk: Macro risk factors: FX, IR, fuel prices Counterparty risk: probability of airline default (by region and by airline type: LCC vs MLC; small, medium large; cargo; long haul vs short haul, etc.) Collateral value risk by aircraft type. Subsets: technological risk, economic life risk Geopolitical risk (e.g. terrorist attacks, wars) Policy/Regulatory/Legal risk (e.g. Brexit, Central Bank intervention, Bank Regulation, Transatlantic Trade Agreement) Exogenous shocks: epidemics (e.g. SARS), acts of nature (e.g. Icelandic volcano) Eddy Pieniazek Head of Advisory Ishka Next session: "The crystal ball" Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
11:00	Morning coffee break Plenary 11:00 Plenary Morning coffee break × Next session: "The crystal ball" Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
11:45	More information "The crystal ball" Ishka will take you to the future, exploring some plausible scenarios, quantifying the leading risk factors and modelling the implications of each scenario. Possible scenarios: Shock to traffic demand and over overcapacity Terrorism Risk: Macro, GDP slump, propensity to travel, FX risk, oil prices Metrics: Profitability, counterparty risk, traffic figures- loads, yields, lease rates, asset values, book values Plenary 11:45 Plenary "The crystal ball" × Ishka will take you to the future, exploring some plausible scenarios, quantifying the leading risk factors and modelling the implications of each scenario. Possible scenarios: Shock to traffic demand and over overcapacity Terrorism Risk: Macro, GDP slump, propensity to travel, FX risk, oil prices Metrics: Profitability, counterparty risk, traffic figures- loads, yields, lease rates, asset values, book values andy golub Risk cit Nils Hallerstrom President PK AirFinance Next session: Strategy labs: Strategic planning and management for the next cycle Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
13:15	Networking lunch Plenary 13:15 Plenary Networking lunch × Next session: Strategy labs: Strategic planning and management for the next cycle Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
14:30	More information Strategy labs: Strategic planning and management for the next cycle The audience will split into focused groups, to encourage idea-sharing and interaction. How will key segments behave and how can management be prepared for the next cycle? - Airlines Capacity management Ability and speed to reduce capacity Yield management- FX strategies Balance sheet- leverage cash reserves to ride out a storm Strategy- LCC vs long haul? Which strategy is best for countering a downturn Assets- should they shift to older aircraft? Narrow or wide body? Lessors Assets/ portfolio structure- lease terms/ extensions, current fleet mix, ability to change fleet Counterparties- client mix Liabilities- what is the best funding source moving forward? Will consolidation be needed? Are lessors equipped to see out a downturn? OEMs To what extent can they adjust production rates if there is a downturn in demand? Restructuring Banks – asset based debt restructurings for airlines / lessors EETC and ABS Lessors – with airline customers (rent reductions, lease extensions) Distressed investing opportunities Financiers Banks Tenors and lending appetite Best approach to banking? Secured, unsecured? Syndication, advisory, distribution? Cost of funding Attractiveness of aviation compared to other asset finance Capital markets Effect on credit cycles and appetite for aircraft funding Will spreads widen? Impact on retail and institutional investors ECAs Will they step in? Are they needed? Plenary 14:30 Plenary Strategy labs: Strategic planning and management for the next cycle × The audience will split into focused groups, to encourage idea-sharing and interaction. How will key segments behave and how can management be prepared for the next cycle? - Airlines Capacity management Ability and speed to reduce capacity Yield management- FX strategies Balance sheet- leverage cash reserves to ride out a storm Strategy- LCC vs long haul? Which strategy is best for countering a downturn Assets- should they shift to older aircraft? Narrow or wide body? Lessors Assets/ portfolio structure- lease terms/ extensions, current fleet mix, ability to change fleet Counterparties- client mix Liabilities- what is the best funding source moving forward? Will consolidation be needed? Are lessors equipped to see out a downturn? OEMs To what extent can they adjust production rates if there is a downturn in demand? Restructuring Banks – asset based debt restructurings for airlines / lessors EETC and ABS Lessors – with airline customers (rent reductions, lease extensions) Distressed investing opportunities Financiers Banks Tenors and lending appetite Best approach to banking? Secured, unsecured? Syndication, advisory, distribution? Cost of funding Attractiveness of aviation compared to other asset finance Capital markets Effect on credit cycles and appetite for aircraft funding Will spreads widen? Impact on retail and institutional investors ECAs Will they step in? Are they needed? Richard Moody Managing Director - Credit Solutions Group Deutsche Bank Colin Bole SVP Commercial Bobb Air Freight Suren Ratwatte CEO SriLankan Airlines Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
15:45	Afternoon coffee break Plenary 15:45 Plenary Afternoon coffee break × Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
16:15	The big debate: Has the industry entered into a new paradigm of super cycles? Plenary 16:15 Plenary The big debate: Has the industry entered into a new paradigm of super cycles? × Nick Hazeldine Head Credit Risk SMBC Tewolde GebreMariam CEO Ethiopian Airlines Steve Townend CCO Bank of China Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
17:15	The Ishka roundup Plenary 17:15 Plenary The Ishka roundup × Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view
17:30	Networking drinks Plenary 17:30 Plenary Networking drinks × Previous session: Chairperson's opening remarks: The Ishka view