Approximately a quarter of all new propulsion products tracked by Ishka SAVi's New Propulsion dashboard have seen their entry-into-service (EIS) target dates slide over the past two years, with the average delay amounting to 16 months. The findings are based on information disclosed via the new OEM’s websites, press announcements, and media interviews.
Ishka looked at 48 new propulsion products by 35 OEMs with a public EIS target, including clean-sheet designs and retrofit solutions. The analysis covers target EIS delays since the product's initial announcements but is concentrated on developments over the past two years since Ishka began compiling commercial commitment data for these products in 2022.
Ishka’s findings
Out of the 48 products investigated, for the majority (31) Ishka did not observe altered EIS timelines based on publicly available information. Delays in EIS were identified for 16 products, evenly spread between electric (4), hybrid-electric (5) and hydrogen-electric aircraft (7). Two of those 16 products have also been discontinued: UH Green hydrogen conversion kit, and Maeve 01 by Maeve.
Breakdown of delays
Ishka was able to identify the following target EIS postponements:
- AURA AERO’s hybrid-electric ERA was initially planned to enter service in 2027, but this has been officially pushed back to 2028. In an April 2024 press release, the firm stated it expected entry into service “before 2030”. The first flight test was also delayed from 2024 to 2026.
- Blue Spirit Aero’s hydrogen-electric two-seater Dragonfly has seen its target EIS postponed from 2026 to 2027, and its first flight from 2024 to 2025.
- Bye Aerospace’s electric eFlyer 800, with over 130 commitments, had its target EIS pushed from 2025 to 2027, according to press reports. The company already reached FAA Approval of its G-2 “Means of Compliance for Certification” issue paper for a separate aircraft, the eFlyer 2 aircraft, in January 2023. This was the first such approval in the general aviation industry, worldwide, by the FAA under Amendment 64 of FAR 23 for a Level 1 all-electric aircraft.
- Cosmic Aerospace’s 25-seater electric aircraft, Skylark, postponed its EIS from 2028 to 2029.
- Cranfield Aerospace’s hydrogen-electric conversion kit for the Britten-Norman BN-2 Islander, with over 100 commitments, had its target EIS delayed from 2026 to 2027.
- Deutsche Aircraft’s Dornier D328, a hydrogen powered nine-seater, had its target EIS was postponed from 2025 to 2027.
- Electra’s nine-seater eSTOL, a hybrid-electric aircraft, is now expected to enter service in 2028 rather than 2026.
- Eviation’s Alice, a nine-seater electric aircraft with over 500 commitments, was as of 2021 expected to enter service in 2024. This date was pushed back to the end of the decade following the Alice’s test flight in 2022, after which the team decided to redesign the aircraft. Its nautical range was also halved.
- Heart Aerospace’s ES-30, with over 230 firm commitments, has seen its target EIS postponed from 2028 to 2029.
- Maeve’s M80’s target EIS was also postponed by a year to 2032. The 80-seater hybrid electric aircraft was presented in 2023 and was initially expected to enter service in 2031.
- Stralis Aircaft’s B1900D-HE hydrogen-electric retrofit product was initially supposed to become available in 2026, but the company now estimates the EIS date to be 2027. Electric motors were tested for the first time at Brisbane Airport in early 2024 with "an eye to performing an actual hydrogen-electric test flight by the end" of 2024.
- Voltaero’s hybrid-electric five-seater, the Cassio 330, had its target EISpostponed from 2024 to 2025. The aircraft has over 200 commitments.
- ZeroAvia’s ZA2000 and ZA600 powertrains, respectively suitable for aircraft conversions in the 40-to-90-seater and a 5-to-20-seater segments, were both postponed by a year to a 2026 and a 2025 EIS respectively.
Discontinued products
Before it ceased operations, Universal Hydrogen’s target EIS date had been pushed from 2025 to 2026. Universal Hydrogen was developing hydrogen propulsion conversion solutions for DHC Dash 8 and ATR turboprops. At the time of its demise at the end of May 2024 it had 250 orders for conversion solutions.
Maeve, also listed in the previous section, has discontinued its 40-seater Maeve 01, a fully-electric programme which had been announced in 2021, stating it “would have only worked with a performance level that would not have met market requirements”. Prior to being discontinued, the EIS target date had been postponed. They are now only working on the M80.
Finally, while not technically discontinued, Embraer’s new generation turboprop (TPNG) proposed since 2019 was been delayed “at least until the beginning of the 2030s” in late 2022. The aircraft had an initial EIS target of 2028. Embraer stated that the new generation turboprop would “only become viable if it reaches goals in performance, maintenance and sustainability. As of today, the options available from a few suppliers are not yet there with respect to all targets”.
The Ishka View
With this analysis, Ishka SAVi is putting numbers to perceptions – whether optimistic or pessimistic – about new propulsion products EIS targets. However, it is important to note that disclosure of information varies between each OEM, and some have reduced their public communication over the past few years. This may signal funding challenges, reallocation of resources away from the initial marketing push, or simply neither: new propulsion OEMs have varying priorities and communication approaches. Unlike larger and well-established OEMs, these firms are not public companies, they have no duty to publicly disclose the pace of their progress and are not beholden to customer pressures in the same way.
However, given that aircraft programmes are notoriously known for their delays in development and entry into service, the relatively modest delays in new propulsion target EIS dates should be taken with a pinch of salt. Ishka expects EIS to be delayed even for the most promising and successful products. This is a new sector with novel product propositions around largely untested technologies and, often, with the aim of creating disruptive new markets. As a result, EIS targets can be driven by market aspirations and a desire to convince potential investors than detailed feasibility roadmaps.
Note: This analysis is based on public disclosures from various companies, where the definition of EIS dates sometimes vary. For tips and feedback, please email us at savi@ishkaglobal.com.
