Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.

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Emirates gets new $1.1 billion injection, Ryanair scores third court win

Ishka estimates that as of 17th June 2021 governments have introduced $193.77 billion in assistance measures for air carriers globally, including sectoral package and airline-specific bailouts. more

17/06/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

ALC markets Blackbird Capital II aircraft ABS

Air Lease Corporation (ALC) is in the market with a $745 million aircraft ABS – Blackbird Capital II. more

16/06/2021

in Aircraft Finance Market

White Oak’s Thrust 2021-1 tests ABS market appetite for widebody engines

White Oak Commercial Aviation has been in the market for several weeks with a $485 million aircraft engine securitisation, Thrust 2021-1, with a unique collateral of 100% widebody engines. more

15/06/2021

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Hudson files lawsuit against Ares and Wilmington for conducting “sham” aircraft auction

EETC investors Hudson Structured Capital Management (Hudson) and CarVal Investors (CarVal) are suing Ares Management and Wilmington Trust, for an alleged “sham” auction of 10 Boeing 737-800 aircraft. more

14/06/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Regulatory and Accounting

Asian airlines get restructuring go-ahead amidst fresh lockdowns

This report is an excerpt from Ishka’s Airline Credit Profiles (ACP) subscription-based service. It delivers ‘The Ishka View’ on the near-term performance of airlines under today’s extraordinary market circumstances. more

11/06/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Clock is ticking for NAC, Avianca agrees A320 LOIs with GECAS

Nordic Aviation Capital’s (NAC) moratorium on debt payment ends at the end of next month, as the lessor edges closer to potentially entering a restructuring. more

11/06/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Will the new EU Taxonomy for green aviation address lessors’ concerns?

The draft of a much-awaited framework by the European Commission on sustainable investment for aviation is set to be shared in the next few months. The framework will be critical for informing 'green' aircraft investments. more

10/06/2021

in Regulatory and Accounting , Investor Education , Aircraft Finance Market

Older aircraft close in on values “floor,” but younger jet prices could fall further

After suffering a period of value realignment since the onset of the pandemic several 20-year-old aircraft types now appear to be reaching a value “floor” where further discounts are unlikely. more

09/06/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Are used A330s winning the hearts (and wallets) of airline startups?

A330 investors are fighting back. Last month, 15 firms launched a joint PR campaign to “raise awareness of the unique abilities" of the type in the hope of winning over existing and potential new operators. more

08/06/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

SKY achieves record yield on aircraft ABS

Aircraft lessor SKY Leasing (SKY) has closed its $663 million ABS SLAM 2021-1 which achieved a record low yield for an aircraft ABS. more

07/06/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

15-year-old aircraft values, OEMs ramp up production and United's supersonic aircraft order

This is a regular series from Ishka’s ‘Transaction Economics’ service. It delivers ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on the near-term performance of aircraft values, lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter under today’s market environment. more

04/06/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

SAS gets government credit, Germany considers keeping 20% stake in Lufthansa

State support for airlines appears to have plateaued in recent weeks, with relatively few new packages announced since the end of March. more

03/06/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

A350 prices firm but older A330 values continue to drop

The Ishka Aircraft Pricing Benchmark aims at collecting (anonymously) the market’s view every two months. Ishka asks market makers, including buyers, sellers and financiers (including lessors, airlines, investors, aviation banks, asset managers, part-out companies, and advisors) their views on the market’s pricing and lease rates. more

02/06/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

China’s ‘Big Three’ report large net losses despite rise in passenger traffic

This report is an excerpt from Ishka’s Airline Credit Profiles (ACP) subscription-based service. It delivers ‘The Ishka View’ on the near-term performance of airlines under today’s extraordinary market circumstances. more

31/05/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Restructured Norwegian boasts lean balance sheet, Hainan lawsuit discontinued

Norwegian Air Shuttle announced on 26th May it has exited the Irish examinership process that the airline entered on 18th November 2020. more

28/05/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Boeing 737 MAX inventory lightens amid spring clearance orders

Airlines and lessors have committed (or recommitted) to buying 258 737 MAX aircraft so far in 2021 possibly including, as Ishka understands, some remarketed white-tail from Boeing’s inventory of 400+ undelivered MAXs. more

27/05/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Erste Bank exits aviation, alt lenders look to fill financing vacuum

Austrian headquartered Erste Group Bank (Erste Bank) has confirmed to Ishka that it is no longer offering aviation financing deals, signalling an exit from the sector. more

26/05/2021

in Aircraft Finance Market

Investor survey: Investors share return targets for new aircraft deals

Nearly 70% of investors questioned by Ishka plan to increase their capital allocation to aviation as an asset class over the next 12 months despite the disruption caused by the covid-19 crisis to the sector. more

25/05/2021

in Aircraft Finance Market

Five-year-old aircraft values, cargo appetite and SLB pressures

This is a regular series from Ishka’s ‘Transaction Economics’ service. It delivers ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on the near-term performance of aircraft values, lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter under today’s market environment. more

24/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Remarketing Watch: Lessors confide in a “dark pool” of available aircraft

Third-party aircraft remarketers note an increasing optimism among lessors hoping to place aircraft by April 2022, in time for a return in demand in summer 2022 but also noted the widespread use of power-by-the-hour lease arrangements for many aircraft types. more

21/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

European airlines: Cargo revenues increase but passenger level woes continue

This report is an excerpt from Ishka’s Airline Credit Profiles (ACP) subscription-based service. It delivers ‘The Ishka View’ on the near-term performance of airlines under today’s extraordinary market circumstances. more

21/05/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Ryanair gets first court wins against state aid, tally grows by $280 million

Ishka estimates that as of 20th May 2021 governments have introduced $192.27 billion in assistance measures for air carriers globally. more

20/05/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

SLB lease rate factors fall to 0.6 (and below) as airlines short-list lessors

Ishka reviews the lease rate factors and pricing for current lessor bids on a number of new Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo sale/leaseback RFPs for several airlines, including Turkish Airlines, Wizz Air, Flydubai, and Spirit. more

19/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Briefing: 777-300ER investors ponder tough re-marketing and part-out options

Investors are testing a number of options for used Boeing 777-300ERs as remarketers warn that demand for the large passenger aircraft remains “extremely low” to “non-existent”. more

18/05/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor CEOs: Rent deferrals down but widebody market remains “challenged”

Ishka reviews some of the key market concerns raised by AerCap, Aircastle and Air Lease Corporation (ALC) in their Q1 2021 earnings calls, including widebody market fortunes, airline restructurings, lessee rent deferrals, the sale/leaseback (SLB) market, and the AerCap-GECAS merger. more

17/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Fly Leasing Q1 2021: Fly impairments prompt a Q1 loss

Fly Leasing reported a net loss of $3.4 million in Q1 2021 due in part to $22.55 million in aircraft impairments. more

14/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

SAA and Sundair exit bankruptcy, Interjet and PAL slide closer

South African Airways is the latest airline to exit bankruptcy as it announces it has exited business rescue proceedings after 17 months. more

13/05/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

ALC Q1 2021: Airline restructurings bring ALC profits to six-year low

Air Lease Corporation (ALC) reported a net income of $84 million in Q1 2021, 24% down from the previous quarter and a six-year low, as revenues were hit by the doubling of its cash-basis fleet. more

12/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Why mid-teen returns are 'unrealistic' for new aircraft equity investors

Ishka presents some key takeaways from the Ishka+ original session: Forecasting with a murky crystal ball. Find out why AerCap & GECAS was probably a one-off, when the industry expects more aircraft impairments, and why there are likely to be more ad-hoc aircraft auctions… All the content is still available on-demand. more

11/05/2021

in Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

A look at 10-year-old aircraft values, lessor optimism and more SLBs

This is a regular series from Ishka’s ‘Transaction Economics’ service. It delivers ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on the near-term performance of aircraft values, lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter under today’s market environment. more

10/05/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Ishka+ London conference: Expect to see more airline failures and restructurings

More airlines are likely to go bust or enter a formal court-led restructuring process in the next 12 months warned panellists speaking at the Ishka+ Investing in Aviation Finance: Europe conference as airlines continue to suffer depressed revenues due to the Covid-19 pandemic. more

07/05/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Regulatory and Accounting

US majors see uptick in summer bookings after a tough Q1

This report is an excerpt from Ishka’s Airline Credit Profiles (ACP) subscription-based service. It delivers ‘The Ishka View’ on the near-term performance of airlines under today’s extraordinary market circumstances. more

06/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Southwest says it may not need fourth PSP as it nears breakeven

Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly said during an earnings call on 22nd April that new state aid under a hypothetical fourth extension to the Payroll Support Programme (PSP) would be “hard” to argue for. more

06/05/2021

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Ishka+: Aviation finance terms ‘tighten’ but airlines still face worryingly frail recovery

Even under “revenge spending” scenarios debt-laden airlines will still face lengthy return to 2019 ‘normal’. more

05/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

AerCap Q1 2020: Profit recovers in an eventful quarter

AerCap recorded a net profit of $228 million in Q1 2021, lifting the lessor’s profit margin back to the double digits after a loss-making 2020 and amid an eventful quarter. more

04/05/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

B737-800 prices and lease rates pushed down by the MAX

Lease rates for older single-aisle aircraft (eight-year and 16-year-old vintages) have continued to drop since January 2020 – according to Ishka Pricing Benchmark research. more

30/04/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

​​​​​​​Seraph, GECAS and SMBC named ‘most advantageous’ bidders in PIA tender

Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has named Seraph, GECAS, and SMBC Aviation Capital ‘most advantageous’ bidders in a competitive tender for eight dry-leased narrowbodies. more

29/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Airline Profiles

Orix and Avolon agree PBH terms with Avianca, the clock is ticking for SA Express

Orix Aviation and Avolon are the latest lessors to agree to amended leases with power-by-the-hour terms, after “substantial arms-length negotiations” with Colombian carrier Avianca Holdings, according to court documents seen by Ishka. more

28/04/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor bonds: $9.1bn in Q1, Chinese lessors issue $2.1bn in April

Aircraft lessors tracked by Ishka rounded off the first quarter of 2021 with $9.19 billion in bond issuances, a two-fold jump from the previous quarter. more

27/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Fund watch: Dunas signs TAP finance Lease, Oaktree funds Azorra expansion, Vanterra anchors Flight Lease Fund

Dunas Aviation Fund signs a finance lease for Portuguese airline TAP for a newly-delivered A321neoLR. more

26/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

A look at 15-year old aircraft, OEM deliveries pick up, lessors report 2020 losses, Aergo buys ATRs

This is a series of supplements to Ishka’s ‘Transaction Economics’ service. It delivers ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on the near-term performance of aircraft values, lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter, under today’s market environment… more

23/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Five airlines get $6bn in new aid including Air Canada, Air France

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $5.94 billion since the last update on 30th March, including measures for Air Montenegro, Air Malta, Air Canada, Air Austral and Air France. more

22/04/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Chinese majors post significant losses, Indian airlines remove capacity

This report is an excerpt from Ishka’s Airline Credit Profiles (ACP) subscription-based service. It delivers ‘The Ishka View’ on the near-term performance of airlines under today’s extraordinary market circumstances. Drawing on the unique set of ACP’s data points, this report examines which airlines remain stronger credits in the weeks ahead, which airlines are on watch and which are seriously exposed to the ongoing impact of COVID-19. more

21/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Briefing: The future of green financing for aviation

Aviation consultant Michael Halaby and Ishka editor Dickon Harris examine how a lack of an applicable set of ESG standards for aviation is holding back the development of green financing for aviation. more

20/04/2021

in Regulatory and Accounting , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Aircraft Values: Widebody values continue downward trend

Aircraft current market values (CMV) and market lease rates (MLR) for a mixture of several 10-year-old, five-year-old and new build widebody aircraft types have continued to fall due to overcapacity in the market, according to industry-leading valuations experts speaking at Ishka’s MENA briefing. more

19/04/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Neo and MAX prices rise since January but MAX lease rates dip

Ishka unveils the market’s pricing sentiment on new-generation single-aisle aircraft. more

16/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

LATAM Brasil to retire A350s, Norwegian aims for new capital raise

LATAM Brasil announced last week it will retire all of its 11 A350-900s with immediate effect as it transitions to an all-Boeing widebody fleet. Remarketers comment that at least one airline start-up has been offered an A350 in the secondary market. more

15/04/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Remarketing Watch: Bank aircraft repossessions expected to drive 2021 remarketing surge

Aircraft remarketers expect to see a surge in demand for remarketing services later this year as banks and investors begin repossessing aircraft used as collateral from non-performing secured loans. more

14/04/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

A look at 5-year-old aircraft values, lessor consolidation, AeroCentury files for Chap 11 and more SLBs

This is a series of supplements to Ishka’s ‘Transaction Economics’ service. It delivers ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on the near-term performance of aircraft values, lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter, under today’s market environment… more

13/04/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Airline bonds Q1 2021: European airlines rush to the unsecured market

Airline unsecured Euro issuances topped €4.85 billion ($5.82 billion) in the first quarter, surpassing the entire volume of unsecured issuances during 2020 of €3.56 billion ($4.23 billion) by 53%. more

12/04/2021

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

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