Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.

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Covid-19 bailouts: Norwegian to get new support, five carriers net $2.1bn

Norway's government says it will contribute to Norwegian Air Shuttle’s funding request pending certain conditions, just two months after its initial refusal pushed the carrier to file for Irish Examinership. more

22/01/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Castlelake beats pre-pandemic pricing as its returns to the aircraft ABS market

US fund manager and leasing firm Castlelake has priced the first commercial aircraft ABS in the 10 months since the global onset of the Covid-19 pandemic – achieving one of the lowest yields to date for an aircraft ABS and beating pricing on its last two transactions issued in 2018 and 2019. more

20/01/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Norwegian to shrink to 50 aircraft, four other airlines delay restructuring plans

Norwegian Air on 14th January outlined a simplified business structure with around 50 narrowbody aircraft. more

19/01/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Investor watch: Fund managers team with lessors to catch aircraft pricing dip

Several money managers have committed capital to aircraft asset managers this month for new debt and equity opportunities within aircraft leasing – despite the sector continuing to be buffeted by the Covid-19 pandemic. more

18/01/2021

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor bonds: Lessors kick off 2021 with a flurry of issuances

Aircraft lessors took advantage of a benign debt capital market in January to issue several unsecured bonds. more

15/01/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

How is Singapore Airlines, one of the largest international carriers, managing the COVID-19 crisis?

In today’s Airline Credit Profile, Ishka reviews how Singapore Airlines Group is managing the COVID 19 crisis. more

14/01/2021

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

On Watch: Mexican govt questions investment in Interjet, lessors file new lawsuits

Mexican LCC Interjet is nearing a month without flights amid an indefinite strike, and the government is questioning an over $100 million infusion by a new investor. more

12/01/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Ishka invites 2020 Deals of the Year Award submissions

Ishka is now accepting submissions for its Deal of the Year Awards. The Ishka Deal of the Year Awards celebrate the best closed aircraft financings of 2020. The awards will be announced at Ishka’s Dublin conference in June 2021. more

11/01/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: US airlines get $15bn aid extension as global tally tops $161.2bn

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $17.07 billion since the last update on 15th December 2020, largely as a result of the $15 billion extension to the Payroll Support Programme (PSP) for US airlines. more

08/01/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

The (surprisingly short) list of airline failures in 2020

The (surprisingly short) list of airline failures in 2020 Commercial aviation endured its worst crisis to date thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic but Ishka research indicates there were relatively few airlines failures in 2020. more

07/01/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Lessors demand clarity from Norwegian, AirAsia X contests lessors’ claims

In this week’s On Watch report, Ishka provides updates on several airlines undergoing either some form of bankruptcy proceedings or restructuring. more

05/01/2021

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Ishka’s Aircraft Pricing Benchmark: A320neo and MAX prices stay firm

Ishka launches its new price discovery service, the Aircraft Pricing Benchmark, the markets’ own guide to current leases and aircraft prices. more

04/01/2021

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Home , Aircraft Finance Market

Seasons greetings from Ishka!

Ishka is taking a break over the Christmas holiday period. We want to offer a sincere thank you to all of our readers for your continued support. Normal Insight service will resume in January. more

23/12/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

A look back at a year of state aid for airlines

Ishka looks back on a year that saw many of the world’s airlines fall into financial distress and governments stepping up to help them. more

22/12/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Discount deals drive distressed Dash 8 market

Lessors indicate a rise in opportunistic buyers for distressed DHC-8Q-400 assets despite a recent uptick in domestic traffic for some regional aircraft operators.  more

21/12/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

On Watch: IAG agrees to €500m Air Europa discount deal

IAG agreed to a €500 million ($613.2 million) purchase of Air Europa on 17th December, according to Spanish newspaper El Confidencial, citing unnamed sources. This is a 50% discount from November 2019’s original €1 billion ($1.23 billion) agreement, with all payment deferred until 2026. more

18/12/2020

in Airline Profiles

Exclusive: Gol 737 MAX reactivation figures show promising start

Brazilian low-cost airline Gol Linhas Aereas (Gol) has this month chalked up 105 revenue flights operated by Boeing 737 MAX, the world’s first since their March 2019 grounding. more

17/12/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: US PSP extension nears, TUI Group and Corsair get aid

A US House proposal to extend the US CARES Act Payroll Support Programme (PSP) nears approval while Germany and France provide new aid to airlines. more

15/12/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessors push back against 12-month PBH requests

Lessors are resisting long-term power by the hour requests from airline customers as they hope for a summer 2021 vaccine-induced aviation recovery. more

14/12/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Viral Capital: Airlines tap banks for $97.2bn since onset of pandemic

Airlines have raised $97.2 billion in publicly disclosed commercial debt during the Covid-19 crisis, including $10.2 billion signed since October, according to Ishka research. more

11/12/2020

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

Is China an exception to domestic traffic recovery?

In today’s Insight, Ishka looks at how some of the major domestic aviation markets have fared since the peak of the initial COVID-19 related lockdowns earlier in 2020. more

10/12/2020

On Watch: Norwegian proposes two-year PBH plan for lessors

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Norwegian) is proposing two-year power-by-the hour (PBH) arrangements on its leased fleet as it seeks bankruptcy protection in Norway alongside its Irish examinership process. more

08/12/2020

in Airline Profiles

Why new aircraft ABS deals will be 'very different' in 2021

There are rumours that at least one new aircraft ABS portfolio is being assembled for a potential Q1 2021 issuance, but aircraft ABS servicers and financiers warn new aircraft ABS deals will need to "evolve" to ensure investor support in 2021. more

07/12/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Engine OEMs: Tepid Q3 recovery as deliveries halve

Q3 brought further signs of a nascent recovery for engine OEMs and MRO shops that, nonetheless, could not mask damage brought on by Covid-19. more

04/12/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

On Watch: Interjet gets new owner, Asiana to reduce leased aircraft

Mexican LCC Interjet announced on 2nd December that businessman Alejandro del Valle has invested 90% of a $150 million funding package, making him a majority owner. more

03/12/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Vaccine news help secured debt margins tighten for ‘blue chip’ airlines

Positive news on the development of a Covid-19 vaccine injected more confidence into the commercial aviation sector during Q4 2020, as margins quoted for new secured airline loans appear to be tightening for top-tier airlines, according to financing sources. more

02/12/2020

in Aircraft Finance Market

Engine lessor Q3: Rental revenues slump as Fortress snags discounted CFM 56s

Engine lessors and investors have bought current generation engines at “extremely distressed” pricing, say leasing sources. more

30/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: France ready to further support Air France-KLM, Corsair

Ishka’s confirmed state support tally rebounded from one of the lowest average weekly increases in the previous update to a $3 billion uptick over the past two weeks. more

27/11/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Airline Credit Profile: Why is Philippine Airlines planning on seeking court protection?

In this Airline Credit Profile, Ishka reviews the factors that led to Philippine Airlines' current predicament. more

26/11/2020

in Airline Profiles

Update: Castlelake to fund lessors and airlines as banks ‘step back’ from the sector

Aviation asset manager and investment firm Castlelake, L.P has launched a new aviation private placement lending programme this month, hiring Armin Rothauser, previously at Starwood Capital and Deutsche Bank, to lead the new programme. more

25/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Norwegian creditors could lose $7.1bn, AirAsia X ordered to pay lessors

Liquidating Norwegian would wipe out the airline’s assets and leave a $7.1 billion deficit, according to a report by auditor Deloitte. more

24/11/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Public lessors Q3: Airline rent deferral demands dip but could return as winter approaches

Three publicly traded lessors, Air Lease Corporation (ALC), AerCap and Fly Leasing (Fly) granted $45 million in rent deferrals in total to their lessees in Q3, just 10% of the amount booked in Q1 2020, as the pace of airline rental forbearance requests slowed down since the start of the year. more

23/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

On Watch: Norwegian enters examinership, Korean Air to buy Asiana stake

Ishka provides updates on airlines from Ishka’s On Watch list, including Norwegian's initiation of an examinership process and Korean Air's acquisition of an Asiana stake. more

20/11/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Fly posts $8.3m loss with rent collections at just 53%

Fly Leasing (Fly) slid into the red this quarter, booking a net loss of $8.1 million as aircraft sales stalled and carriers struggled to meet their lease payments. more

19/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Ishka World Tour: Pricing on aircraft ABS A notes ‘snap back’

Pricing on the senior A notes for many aircraft ABS “snapped back” to 90 cents on the dollar in the secondary market in September and October, according to speakers at Ishka’s World Tour. more

18/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

AerCap Q3: Record loss as lessor takes $915m widebody impairment

AerCap posted an $850 million net loss in the third quarter largely due to a $915 million fleet impairment concentrated on current technology A330 and 777 widebodies. more

17/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Cheap leases help Rex take on Bain’s Virgin Australia

Australian regional carrier Regional Express Holdings Ltd (Rex) aims to increase its fleet to around 30-40 single-aisle aircraft by the end of 2022 as it takes advantage of a soft leasing market to bolster its fleet. more

13/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Covid-19 bailouts: Cathay and Lufthansa ready for winter, new support slows down

The recent $0.68 billion increase to Ishka’s confirmed state support tally is, on an average weekly basis, one of the lowest since March. more

12/11/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

ALC Q3: No PBH ‘pandemic’ as lessor hits record-high liquidity

ALC maintained its focus on liquidity this quarter as deferral requests slowed ahead of what executives expect to be a bleak winter for carriers. Despite seeing its revenues down for the third quarter running, the lessor’s liquidity is at an all-time high. more

11/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Ishka World Tour takeaways

Ishka presents some of the key takeaways from the Ishka World Tour Conference. more

10/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Thai to sell 34 aircraft, court accepts Nok Air rehabilitation

In this week’s On Watch report, Ishka provides updates on 30 airlines undergoing forms of bankruptcy proceedings and restructuring. more

09/11/2020

in Airline Profiles , Investor Education

Aircraft values: Freighters alone escape the CMV slide

Aircraft values and lease rates continue to trend downwards, according to three appraisers speaking at Ishka’s World Tour. more

06/11/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

Ishka World Tour: Airlines question if second wave of state support will occur

Speakers throughout the conference expressed doubts around whether a second wave of government aid for airlines will materialise. more

05/11/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Are we seeing more 'realism' yet from leased aircraft sellers?

Bid/ask spreads are “narrowing” on aircraft prices, say asset managers, but trading leased aircraft remains challenging. more

04/11/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

On Watch: Fuel bills leave Interjet grounded

Budget Mexican carrier Interjet cancelled all flights on 1st and 2nd November after failing to pay its jet fuel bills. more

03/11/2020

in Airline Profiles

Ishka World Tour: Could Covid-19 change Korean investor appetite?

South Korean investors are likely to retain an interest in aircraft after the Covid-19 crisis, but changing market conditions could propel more diversification, according to financiers speaking at Ishka’s World Tour. more

02/11/2020

in Investor Education , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: Aeroflot aid swells to $1.9bn, Air Europa to surpass $700m

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $1.37 billion since the last update on 15th October, due in large part to Moscow spending around $900 million in an Aeroflot share issuance. more

30/10/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Boeing posts decade’s worst Q3 results

Boeing has reported its worst Q3 results this decade. On every metric supplied, Boeing hit either record lows or highs in what CFO Greg Smith described as “the most difficult [moment] in our company’s 100-plus year history.” more

30/10/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Ishka World Tour: Institutional investor appetite ‘steadies’ for new aviation deals

Investors and fund managers speaking at the Ishka World Tour stated that investor appetite for new aviation debt is “steadying” despite the risks imposed on the sector from the Covid-19 crisis. Several investors argued that aviation retained its “relative value” appeal, offering institutional investors higher returns compared to other sectors. more

28/10/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Avianca turns to lenders for PBH deals, AirAsia X Indonesia refutes liquidation claims

Avianca has placed 39 aircraft on power-by-the-hour (PBH) contracts, subject to US bankruptcy court approval, according to court documents dated 8th October 2020. more

27/10/2020

in Airline Profiles

Transaction Economics

Transaction Economics – Aircraft Values and Trading Data

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Ishka Advisory – Airline Restructuring

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