Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.

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Covid-19 bailouts: Alitalia gets $235m, KDB throws Asiana $2bn lifeline

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $2.06 billion since last update on 3rd September with the following additions. more

17/09/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

High debt costs eat into aircraft lessor returns

Some lessors may be making lower returns on new sale/leaseback deals than they were pre-Covid because of increased financing costs, according to Ishka research. more

16/09/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: LATAM and Avianca hit DIP financing roadblocks

Ishka updates on airlines in bankruptcy and creditor protection. This week, LATAM and Avianca saw DIP financing proposals rejected and restrained by court orders. more

15/09/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

E190s stave off retirement as carriers clinch cheap lease extensions

The Covid-19 pandemic has extended the operating life of many E190 jets, explain regional jet lessors, many of which were facing a “foul” wave of retirements. more

14/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Investor guide: Aircraft storage in the age of Covid-19

In this investor guide Ishka looks at aircraft storage options: how have storage providers adapted, the process of storing an aircraft and the cost and service considerations. more

10/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Investor Education

Rising airline debt margins attract hedge fund interest

Higher margins and better loan terms on new secured aircraft loans have attracted the attention of hedge funds seeking to offer debt to airlines directly through debt funds and private placements, state financiers. more

09/09/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Regional carriers receive less than 1% of state aid

Just 0.38% of confirmed and 0.31% of confirmed and unconfirmed state aid has gone to regional carriers as of 28th August, Ishka research shows, a fraction of the billions offered to airlines globally since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis. more

08/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Airbus undelivered aircraft glut shows signs of easing

Airbus and Boeing had nearly 600 built but undelivered aircraft at the end of Q2 2020. This number is now likely to be higher, but the situation at Airbus appears to be improving. more

07/09/2020

in Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Airline Credit Profile: Why is Wizz Air among the best placed airlines to benefit from the COVID-19 crisis?

In this week’s airline credit profile, Ishka highlights how Wizz Air’s financial position has allowed it to take a different approach to the COVID-19 crisis than some of its peers. more

04/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Dubai gives Emirates $2bn, Avianca gets $370m loan

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $2.37 billion. Meanwhile, three major airlines in Norway are reportedly due to have a crisis meeting with the Norwegian government next week. more

03/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Smartwings in creditor protection, Norwegian at “significant risk” of collapse

Ishka updates on airlines in bankruptcy proceedings and on Ishka's watch list. Norwegian is at “significant risk” of collapse without further creditor agreements, the airline stated in its H1 2020 results. more

02/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 ushers in a nascent 787 and A350 secondary market

Ishka estimates there are up to 22 787s and A350s in the market looking for new operators. more

01/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: Trump considers further support for airlines, Thai LCCs to get $769m in loans

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by a mere $15.5 million since last week’s update, the second smallest weekly increase since this series began in March. more

28/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Fund watch: Icelease signals buying intent with naked aircraft purchase

Reykjavík-based lessor Icelease together with Corrum Capital Management, a private investment firm, have bought a naked 12-year old Boeing 737-800 through their joint venture CCM ICL Leasing LLC. more

26/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

State aid vs revenues: Which airlines have secured generous state aid?

Ishka compares state aid packages for 62 airlines and airline groups against their most recently reported pre-Covid annual revenues. more

25/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: EasyFly, Nok Air, Virgin Atlantic make 25 carriers down

EasyFly, Nok Air and Virgin Atlantic joined 22 other airlines or airline groups in forms of bankruptcy protection, insolvency and restructuring this August. more

24/08/2020

in Airline Profiles

Operators, investors “jostling” for place in A321 conversion queue

Investors and operators are paying “hundreds of thousands of dollars” to hold a place in the queue for A321 freighter conversion, say cargo sources. more

21/08/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Seven carriers get $2.8bn in new and additional aid

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by nearly $2.8 billion over the past two weeks as seven airlines received new or additional state aid. more

20/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

JSA and CDB Aviation test the market with leased aircraft portfolios

Aircraft trading, the normal sale of leased and naked aircraft between lessors, nearly ceased entirely after the immediate onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, Ishka is aware of new activity in the market as lessors begin to test investor appetite for leased aircraft. more

19/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Public lessors Q2: Delayed rents top $700m but requests have ‘peaked’

Air Lease Corporation, Fly Leasing and AerCap have accumulated $702 million in deferred lease payments, but the three firms are optimistic that the worst has now passed. more

17/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Q2 ends Fly’s selling spree as lessor offers longer rent deferrals

Q2 2020 marked the end of Fly Leasing’s (Fly) aircraft selling spree: the lessor recorded no gains on aircraft sale for the first time in nine quarters as the pandemic depressed transaction volumes across the industry. more

14/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

How do Aircraft ABS structures perform if cash flows are reduced due to Covid-19?

In a guest insight Kevin MacLeod, Vedder Price’s Head of the New York Capital Markets Group, examines some of the structural protections prevalent in recent aircraft ABS transactions. more

13/08/2020

in Capital Markets , Investor Education , Market Move

Analysis: DZ Bank mulls new sales process for DVB AIM/AM

DZ Bank is understood to be exploring a new sales process for DVB AIM/AM after a planned merger with Japanese Bank MUFG stalled in the face of US banking regulatory hurdles. more

11/08/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

ALC Q2: Deferral repayments “significantly” outstrip fresh forbearance requests

Repayment of deferred aircraft rents now “significantly exceeds” requests by airlines for new support, while greater caution on the part of lessors has led to a fresh insistence upon security deposits and a hike in lease rate factors (LRFs) on sale-leaseback transactions. more

10/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Covid-19 bailouts: Trump backs further $25bn for US airlines

The political momentum behind a proposed extension to the US CARES Act payroll support program makes its continuation likely, but the terms and size are yet to be negotiated. more

07/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

AerCap Q2 2020: Deferrals slash 12-month cash flow outlook by 26%

The wave of aircraft lease deferrals has cut AerCap’s 12-month cash flow expectation by 26% over the past two quarters from $3.1 billion to $2.3 billion at the end of Q2 2020. more

04/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Boeing cuts output as lessors trim quarter of 737 MAX orders

MAX cancellations have been creeping up at nearly double the monthly 31-aircraft production target. Among those, lessors feature heavily. more

03/08/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Airbus and Boeing Q2: Lessors lead order activity as OEMs cut output

Lessors “largely [drove]” OEM order activity in Q2 2020, said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury, as airlines struggling to deal with the impacts of Covid-19 stepped back as buyers. more

31/07/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: Brussels Airlines aid takes Lufthansa's total to $12bn

The Belgian government and Lufthansa agreed on a stabilisation package to rescue Brussels Airlines. The latest $335 million in state aid takes Lufthansa Group’s tally to $12 billion. more

30/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Will other lessors need to adopt an ‘NAC type’ debt standstill?

Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC) managed to win itself some breathing space after it successfully arranged a debt standstill with its creditors in early July. But sources warn that NAC could simply be the first of several potential aircraft lessor restructurings set to eventually hit the market. more

29/07/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Aeromexico and SAA cut aircraft as Jeju ditches Eastar

South Korean LCC Eastar Jet has joined Ishka’s On Watch list after peer airline, Jeju Air, announced it had scrapped plans to purchase of 51% of the carrier. more

27/07/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: US majors support ‘clean’ CARES Act aid extension

Major US airlines will only support a “clean” extension of the payroll support beyond September without “extraneous conditions,” a major trade association has said. more

24/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 gives lease of life for sunsetting 757 freighter

Fresh availability of 757 aircraft due to Covid-19 will extend the operational life of its freighter fleet for another two to three years, cargo sources suggest. more

23/07/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Aircraft ABS: START III winds down portfolio, further ABS downgrades

In its monthly aircraft ABS round up, Ishka summarises some recent trends and transaction highlights. more

21/07/2020

in Capital Markets

Airline bonds Q2 2020: North American carriers dominate issuances

A rush for liquidity among large North American carriers during Q2 2020 saw Delta, Southwest, Air Canada, Copa and Spirit issue $8.65 billion of traded unsecured airline debt. more

20/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor bond issuances plummet in Q2 2020

An analysis of a sample of bonds issued by aircraft leasing companies in 2019 Q2 versus 2020 Q2 shows that lessors issued, overall, fewer bonds (by 40.8%) and of smaller amounts (by 31.7%). more

17/07/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Covid-19 bailouts: Garuda, Aeroflot aid among $2.9bn tally uptick

Newly-announced state aid for Garuda Indonesia and Aeroflot made up a big share of the bailout tally weekly increase. more

16/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Aeromexico among five fresh airline casualties

Only two weeks in, July has seen five more carriers enter bankruptcy proceedings or cease operations, bringing the total to 21 airlines or airline groups in forms of insolvency since April 2020. more

14/07/2020

in Airline Profiles

Moderate A330 phase-outs show airlines holding onto the type

Ishka’s review of phase-out, retirement or unscheduled lease return announcements during the Covid-19 crisis shows 50 A330s due for an early exit. more

13/07/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Governments to take stakes in El Al and TAP

A bailout deal agreed by El Al Israel Airlines could see the Israeli state take a 61% stake in the airline while Portugal is set to acquire 72.5% of TAP Air Portugal. more

10/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor bonds: Spreads stay wide as ratings agencies mull downgrade

An analysis of 236 currently trading lessor bonds show that spreads remain wide versus pre-Covid levels across maturities and ratings. more

09/07/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Airlines seek summer A350 sale/leasebacks

Lessors indicate that after a “lull” sale/leaseback activity is now picking up but warn that financing remains a bottleneck for many asset managers looking to win mandates. more

07/07/2020

in Aircraft Finance Market

Top 100 airlines: LCCs and large domestic carriers fare better in crisis

No airline is immune to the Covid-19 crisis, but some are more resilient than others. Low-cost carriers (LCCs) and operators in large domestic markets appear to be doing better. more

06/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Airlines decelerate debt issuances to $7 billion in June

Carriers disclosed only $6.9 billion of fresh commercial debt in June 2020, nearly half the amount airlines accessed in the first two weeks of March alone, but roughly equal to the volume of new bonds issued in the same period last year. more

03/07/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Altavair CEO: ‘The aircraft leasing model has to evolve’

Altavair CEO Steve Rimmer believes “outsized returns” for aircraft lessors are a thing of the past, arguing that the Covid-19 crisis is accelerating a process of change that was already underway within aircraft lessors and their relationships with aircraft manufacturers. more

02/07/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Three short-haul carriers down, SAA to halve fleet

Three more short-haul airlines – Caribbean carrier LIAT, Austrian LEVEL Europe and SunExpress Germany – have joined the growing list of Covid-19 casualties, bringing the total to 14 airlines or airline groups since March. more

30/06/2020

in Airline Profiles

Airline Credit Profile: China Southern’s opportunities and threats in the post Covid-19 world

In this week’s airline credit profile, Ishka highlights some of the key aspects of China Southern’s management of the coronavirus crisis. more

29/06/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa AGM approves aid, KLM rescue unveiled

The approval of the Lufthansa bailout package by shareholders this week dissipated fears that the airline could be forced into insolvency. more

26/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Risk of an oversupply of 737-800 freighters, warn cargo sources

The 737-800 freighter market is at risk of potential oversupply, say cargo sources, as more aircraft lessors and operators are looking at cargo conversion over the next few years. more

25/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

Transaction Economics

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Ishka Advisory – Airline Restructuring

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