Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.

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Airlines seek summer A350 sale/leasebacks

Lessors indicate that after a “lull” sale/leaseback activity is now picking up but warn that financing remains a bottleneck for many asset managers looking to win mandates. more

07/07/2020

in Aircraft Finance Market

Top 100 airlines: LCCs and large domestic carriers fare better in crisis

No airline is immune to the Covid-19 crisis, but some are more resilient than others. Low-cost carriers (LCCs) and operators in large domestic markets appear to be doing better. more

06/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Airlines decelerate debt issuances to $7 billion in June

Carriers disclosed only $6.9 billion of fresh commercial debt in June 2020, nearly half the amount airlines accessed in the first two weeks of March alone, but roughly equal to the volume of new bonds issued in the same period last year. more

03/07/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Altavair CEO: ‘The aircraft leasing model has to evolve’

Altavair CEO Steve Rimmer believes “outsized returns” for aircraft lessors are a thing of the past, arguing that the Covid-19 crisis is accelerating a process of change that was already underway within aircraft lessors and their relationships with aircraft manufacturers. more

02/07/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Three short-haul carriers down, SAA to halve fleet

Three more short-haul airlines – Caribbean carrier LIAT, Austrian LEVEL Europe and SunExpress Germany – have joined the growing list of Covid-19 casualties, bringing the total to 14 airlines or airline groups since March. more

30/06/2020

in Airline Profiles

Airline Credit Profile: China Southern’s opportunities and threats in the post Covid-19 world

In this week’s airline credit profile, Ishka highlights some of the key aspects of China Southern’s management of the coronavirus crisis. more

29/06/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa AGM approves aid, KLM rescue unveiled

The approval of the Lufthansa bailout package by shareholders this week dissipated fears that the airline could be forced into insolvency. more

26/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Risk of an oversupply of 737-800 freighters, warn cargo sources

The 737-800 freighter market is at risk of potential oversupply, say cargo sources, as more aircraft lessors and operators are looking at cargo conversion over the next few years. more

25/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

ABS update: S&P announces aircraft and engine ABS downgrades

Ratings agency S&P downgraded 23 securities from 30 separate aircraft and aircraft engine ABS transactions last week. Twenty of the lowered ratings remain “On Watch” for potential further downgrade. more

24/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

EU ‘reopening’ leads tepid international travel reactivation

Beyond a few regional pockets of travel activity, international air travel remains stymied by health regulations and travel restrictions. more

23/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Aircraft Values: Ishka and Oriel issue further cuts, 737 NG premium dries up

Appraisers from Ishka and Oriel recorded further cuts on lease rates and values for some assets types this month, describing aviation as still in a “shocked, survival mode.” more

22/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa bailout in question, countries mull new aid

Lufthansa warns it could file for bankruptcy protection if its largest shareholder votes against a German bailout package while other countries mull further aid for their airlines. more

19/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Rating agencies respond to Covid-19 stress on aircraft ABS deals

Rating agencies have downgraded or placed several aircraft ABS notes on watch downgrade in the last few weeks in response to the continued pressure on securitised leased aircraft portfolios in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. more

18/06/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Airlines On Watch: LATAM seeks to alter over 150 aircraft contracts

LATAM has proposed stipulations on more than 150 aircraft on lease or with loans attached, including the right to terminate aircraft agreements with 15 days’ notice. Meanwhile, other troubled carriers are making moves to return lease aircraft or sell owned ones. more

16/06/2020

in Airline Profiles

Airline fleet phase-outs affect up to half of 767s and A340s

A growing number of airlines are trimming their fleets as they reconsider their capacity needs in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. more

15/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Lessors warn of potential widebody engine spares glut

Lessors say that airlines seeking to offload engines from parked widebody aircraft during the Covid-19 crisis could create flood of spare engines that will hurt an already soft widebody engine leasing market. more

12/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Cathay, Austrian, TAP receive state support (11th June)

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by nearly $7 billion since the last update following announcements by Cathay Pacific, Austrian Airlines, TAP Air Portugal and others. more

11/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

NAC wins court approval to seek debt standstill from lenders

Regional aircraft lessor Nordic Aviation Capital (NAC) has received permission from the Irish High Court to negotiate a debt standstill and deferrals with its largest lenders. more

10/06/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Negative A380 prospects weigh down closed-end funds

Few aircraft types have been as badly hit by the Covid-19 crisis as the Airbus A380. Four funds containing 18 A380s have seen their share price decline by 54% this year. more

09/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Aviation’s green dreams sidelined by Covid-19

Covid-19 has pushed the climate crisis out of the limelight. Airlines and governments worldwide have put the focus on short-term survival rather than long-term sustainability. more

08/06/2020

in Regulatory and Accounting

Covid-19 bailouts: Austrian inches towards aid after Lufthansa deal

The finalisation of the Lufthansa bailout appears to have cleared the way for Austrian Airlines to receive state aid. more

05/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Airlines On Watch: El Al grounded as SAA returns 19 leased aircraft

Several airlines struggling in the wake of Covid-19 are looking to either return leased aircraft or sell aircraft to repay creditors. more

04/06/2020

in Airline Profiles

Lessors get ready for a second wave of aircraft rent deferrals

Lessors warn they are preparing for a second wave of aircraft rent deferral requests from struggling airline customers after granting some initial form of temporary rental relief earlier in the year. more

03/06/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Engine OEMs negotiate parts discounts as deliveries drop 84%

Engine sources describe ongoing talks with engine OEMs over parts sales as manufacturers try to counteract plummeting aftermarket demand and deliveries. more

02/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Strings attached: How does Covid-19 state aid constrain airlines?

Ishka reviews some of the most common conditions attached to airline state aid packages. more

01/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

AFIC honours Norwegian claim, ECAs “busy” with airline restructuring requests

AFIC has honoured a non-payment claim, state sources while ECAs are busy with restructuring requests from airlines on legacy aircraft loans. more

31/05/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa gets aid, Latin America rethinks support

A €9 billion Lufthansa bailout makes Germany the second-largest provider of state aid to airlines as Chile and Colombia consider supporting bankrupt LATAM and Avianca. more

28/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

On Watch: Will AirAsia X survive Covid-19?

In this week’s airline credit profile, Ishka looks at one of the ‘On Watch’ airlines, AirAsia X. more

27/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Airlines On Watch: LATAM and TAME join the list of Covid-19 casualties

Latin America’s largest carrier, LATAM Airlines (LATAM), is the latest coronavirus casualty after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in a New York court yesterday. more

26/05/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 sees “seismic” drop in aftermarket demand

Covid-19 has caused a “seismic” drop in demand for aircraft parts as airlines delay all but necessary maintenance in their efforts to conserve cash. At the same time, an accelerated rate of aircraft retirements risk flooding the parts market, pushing up supply at a time of already low demand. more

25/05/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa in ‘advanced talks’ for bailout (21st May)

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $1.34 billion from the previous week, but Germany edged closer to an agreement for a $9.7bn 'stabilisation package' for Lufthansa. more

21/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Asset Managers Survey: A limited hike in equity returns

An Ishka survey of aircraft asset managers reveals many are concerned about possible aircraft repossessions while several lessors are still trying to trade aircraft portfolios despite difficult market conditions. more

20/05/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Viral Capital: Airlines slow down debt raising

Airlines appear to have slowed down the volume of additional debt facilities in the last few weeks after raising billions of dollars a day during March and April to help cope with the coronavirus crisis. more

19/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

Domestic resilience: Which airlines and aircraft stand to benefit?

Commercial air traffic has begun a slow recovery, raising the question of which airlines and aircraft will be best positioned in the new environment. more

18/05/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Airlines on Watch: Avianca joins list of 11 collapsed carriers

11 carriers are in bankruptcy proceedings following the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis, placing as many as 500 aircraft – 80% of which are leased – at risk of re-entering the market. more

15/05/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Brazil downsizes bailout offer, others retrench (14 May)

Could governmental support to aviation be beginning to waiver? The total tally, including reported support packages in the works, saw a slight weekly decrease for the first time. more

14/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Aircraft lessors end up with a majority stake in Norwegian

Lessors have become the largest group of shareholders in Norwegian Air Shuttle (Norwegian) after creditors and shareholders agreed to a NOK10 billion ($958 million) debt-for-equity scheme to help the troubled airline unlock crucial state aid. more

13/05/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Public lessors Q1: Covid onset results in mild hit to lease revenues

Fly, ALC, and AerCap finished Q1 2020 with mild declines to their operating lease revenue, as the bulk of lease deferrals agreed with airline customers have yet to hit lessors’ balance sheets. more

12/05/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Public lessors Q1: Rent deferrals top $500 million

Ishka summarises the talking points of lessors' Q1 earnings calls, including airline support, sale-leaseback and forward placement activity and how best to fund yourself through a crisis. more

11/05/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Covid-19 bailouts: Italian minister pledges $3.2 bn for Alitalia (7th May)

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by a $1.16 billion over the past week as Garuda and IAG announced receiving state loans. Separately, Italy pledged $3.2 billion for Alitalia. more

07/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

​​​​​​​Lessors bid on Wizz and EasyJet sale/leasebacks

Wizz and EasyJet join several carriers that are also rumoured to be in the market. Sources estimate that there may be as many as two hundred aircraft currently in the sale-leaseback market as airlines explore any means they can to raise cash. more

06/05/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Engine SLB bids up to 40% below pre-Covid levels

Engine lessors say they are bidding on engine RFPs at a 30% - 40% discount from pre-coronavirus prices as airlines continue their frantic search for liquidity. more

05/05/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Q1 2020: How the large US carriers are managing Covid-19 cash burn

The four largest North American carriers are collectively burning through approximately $250 million per day, Q1 results show. more

04/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: Big week for big European airlines (1st May)

Ishka's airline bailouts tally grew by $15.7 billion over the past week as European countries granted state aid to large flag carriers. more

01/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Q1 2020: Airbus and Boeing bleed billions as Covid-19 hits profits

The two airframe giants booked a combined $1.2 billion net loss in Q1 2020 as deliveries and orders dry up. more

30/04/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Viral Capital: Airlines access another $12 billion in April dash for cash

Airlines accessed a further $12 billion in publicly disclosed fresh debt and drawdowns this April as carriers worldwide fought keep afloat, with another $17 billion of debt under negotiation. more

29/04/2020

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

OEM slowdown: Boeing and Airbus down to single digit deliveries

In this insight, Ishka examines the bleak production and delivery landscape for Airbus and Boeing. more

28/04/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

The rise of ECAs and supported financing for aircraft deliveries

Two recent aircraft deliveries to Pegasus, financed with the support of ACG and Balthazar respectively, offer positive signals that non-payment insurance providers are still “on” for aircraft deliveries. more

27/04/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Airlines on watch: Coronavirus casualties rack up

A spate of airlines have slid into administration in the past week, leaving a total of 247 aircraft – 195 of which were leased – to potentially re-enter the market, according to Ishka calculations. more

24/04/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: State support for airlines approaches $100 billion

Ishka estimates that as of 23rd April governments around the world are preparing or have executed airline bailouts worth up to $99.4 billion. more

23/04/2020

in Airline Profiles , Regulatory and Accounting

Transaction Economics

Transaction Economics – Aircraft Values and Trading Data

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Ishka Advisory – Airline Restructuring

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