Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.


ESG Five: Singapore adds aviation to new Taxonomy, CDB Aviation’s sust-linked loan, and more…

Key stories include Singapore’s newly-launched sustainable finance Taxonomy (which contains criteria for zero-emission aviation and SAF), and lessor CDB Aviation closes a sustainability-linked loan. more


Ishka 2023 Deals of the Year Award submissions now open!

Ishka is now accepting submissions for its Deal of the Year Awards. The Ishka Deal of the Year Awards celebrate the best-closed aircraft financings of 2023. more


10-year-old aircraft values, COMAC elaborates on new C919 variants

Welcome to the 114th ‘Extra’ supplement to Ishka’s Transaction Economics platform, delivering ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on aircraft values and lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter in today’s aviation environment. This report examines how aircraft types are faring through current events; which types are in favour; which are ‘on watch’; and which are most exposed or impacted by the evolving aircraft environment. more


Aircraft Buyers List December 23: Which aircraft are lessors targeting?

This is the 7th edition of Ishka’s aircraft buyers list, where Ishka summarises a list of potential and active buyers of leased aircraft on the secondary market. Ishka recorded seven new aircraft trades and added three new firms to the list since the last update on September 20th 2023. more


Why Helaba and NordLB may be exiting aviation lending

NordLB is mulling options for its aviation loan business including a potential sale of the platform while Helaba, another German Landesbank, is understood to be winding down its aircraft portfolio as it “pauses” on new aircraft loans, sources tell Ishka. more


Turboprops: Could ESG concerns help their commercial outlook?

It is often said that the best solution to a problem is the easiest one, and yet as the airline industry pours time and effort into strategies to decarbonise short-haul flying, one readily available option is seldom mentioned: re-fleeting with turboprops. more


ESG Five: Virgin’s 100% SAF flight milestone, COP28 expectations, and more

This update’s key stories include Virgin Atlantic’s historic 100% SAF commercial transatlantic flight – both a major milestone and a publicity stunt with mixed reactions – and the EU heads to COP28 pushing for aviation taxes to fund a major climate fund. more


Airlines likely to see LRFs rise for Autumn SLB RFPs

Lessors indicate that lease rate factors (LRFs) on new deals are starting to rise as more lessors are being forced to price in the current higher cost of debt, which in turn, is increasing the minimum LRFs lessors can offer. more


Q3 Trading Update: Winter trading activity is set to pick up after slow summer

Nine aircraft lessors analysed by Ishka acquired 23 aircraft via trades and sold 45 aircraft in the third quarter of 2023. more


Remarketing Watch Data Sheet: A320ceos still scarce going into December

A320ceo availability remains low, with 26 of the variant being actively remarketed on sites analysed by Ishka. more


US LCCs slip in the red amidst rising operation costs and increasing fuel prices, Canadian airlines record strong Q3 performance

Ishka summarises how the major North American airlines performed in Q3 2023. In what is historically the busiest quarter of the year for most airlines, US LCCs particularly struggled with JetBlue, Spirit and Frontier recording decreasing year-on-year revenues. Canadian airlines and US full-service carriers appear to have better mitigated the high fuel prices as well as the cost of capacity build-up. more


ALI 2023: Lessors divided over SAF role, Willie Walsh insists net zero is possible for aviation

The issue of SAF dominated every panel session at Aircraft Leasing Ireland’s (ALI) second event held this week in Dublin, with a widespread agreement that SAF represented the only credible option for aviation to help meet 2050 net-zero carbon targets. “There is no alternative,” reflected Willie Walsh, the Director-general of IATA at the conference. “We have to accept that the transition to net zero is going to be critically dependent on sustainable aviation fuel.” more


Lessor order books: AerCap opts for A321neos, ALAFCO cancels Airbus orders

ALC took delivery of the most new aircraft during October with six, followed by AerCap with four and CDB Leasing with two aircraft. more


5-year-old aircraft values, Dubai Air Show furthers "delivery slot grabs"

Welcome to the 113th ‘Extra’ supplement to Ishka’s Transaction Economics platform, delivering ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on aircraft values and lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter in today’s aviation environment. This report examines how aircraft types are faring through current events; which types are in favour; which are ‘on watch’; and which are most exposed or impacted by the evolving aircraft environment. more


OEM Update: Boeing chases lowered 737 delivery target, Airbus sticks to its guns on GTF supply

Boeing delivered 18 737 MAX in October, leaving the company chasing 70 narrowbody deliveries in the final two months of the year in order to meet its latest target. more


Asset managers Q3 2023 update

Ishka's asset managers datasheet provides a summary of recent news, activity, and metrics of aircraft asset managers in Q3 2023. more


US Court approves Castlelake’s 32% stake in SAS

US courts have approved a $1.2 billion exit financing deal in Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) by a group of investors including Castlelake, Air France-KLM, Lind Invest, and the Danish state, which will see the lessor become the single largest shareholder in the Scandinavian carrier. more


Briefing: What do contrails and their climate impacts mean for aircraft investors?

They are an icon of the jet age, but they can also be terrible for the climate. Ishka looks at why aircraft investors should be mindful of the environmental impacts of contrails. more


Data Sheet: Aviation capital markets wrap-up November 2023

Ishka's capital market wrap-up is a summary of recent activity in aviation debt issuance. more


Virgin Australia returns to the black, Qantas recovers financially amidst PR crisis

Ishka reviews developments in the Australian commercial aviation sector. The market is dominated by Qantas and its subsidiaries, however the flag carrier now finds itself in the midst of a major public relations and governance crisis. We review how it is positioned to deal with the challenges and whether the other airlines in the country can make some inroads into the flag carrier’s dominant market position. more


ESG Five: EU jet fuel tax hits snag, study calls for govts to pay 20% of $5tn net-zero bill, and more…

Key stories include confirmation that plans to remove an EU tax exemption for jet fuel have hit a snag, and a working paper calls on governments to front 20% of the $5tn cost of decarbonising aviation. more


Ares and Wilmington ‘rigged’ aircraft auction lawsuits could go to court

Two landmark lawsuits filed by junior bondholders on separate transactions against Ares, Vmo Aircraft Leasing Holdings (Vmo), and Wilmington Trust over “sham” aircraft auctions conducted during the pandemic are progressing through the US courts and could, potentially, be heading to trial next year. more


AC23 round-up: Eyes set on CAAF/3 as SAF Book & Claim rises up the agenda

Ishka, a knowledge partner of Aviation Carbon 2023, summarises the main takeaways of this week's conference in London. more


ALC Q3 2023: OEMS ‘likely’ to miss production targets, earliest single-aisle delivery slots could extend to 2030s

Earliest delivery slots for narrowbodies have extended “into the 2030s,” said ALC chairman Steve Hazy, while widebodies are also being “quickly snapped up”. more


New-build aircraft values, Southwest's 108 Boeing 737 order, Bamboo may return aircraft amid restructuring

Welcome to the 112th ‘Extra’ supplement to Ishka’s Transaction Economics platform, delivering ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on aircraft values and lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter in today’s aviation environment. more


ESG Extra: EU Council approves ReFuelEU Aviation

This November 2023 issue covers relevant sustainability developments for aviation finance during September and October 2023: sustainable finance, SAF, government policy, and more... more


Bank Q3 pricing survey: Competition tightens spreads for aviation credits

Ishka research indicates spreads for new secured aircraft financings experienced a slight tightening of roughly 10-15bps between July and September for airline and leasing credits, despite bank funding costs remaining broadly the same. more


On Watch: Kenya Airways hit by Ksh depreciation, regulatory roadblocks smother Asiana-Korean Air merger

Kenya Airways is sinking deeper into debt due to the fluctuating Kenyan shilling's impact on its financial stability. The carrier's significant debt of Ksh196.4 billion ($1.3 billion) being primarily dollar-denominated has led to substantial forex losses, amounting to $172 million as of the end of September. more


AerCap Q3 2023: More stock buybacks as lessor continues to sell off older aircraft

AerCap is continuing its strategy of selling off aircraft and buying its own stock, as it announced yet another $500 million share repurchase programme. more


Chinese carriers continue to post losses despite improving capacity

This week looks at the mixed recovery of major Chinese airlines such as Air Macau, Shenzhen Airlines, Shandong Airlines and Xiamen Airlines. Ishka reviews developments at Sichuan Airlines and its LCC unit, Chengdu Airlines as well as LCCs such as 9 Air and Colorful Guizhou Airlines, who have been aggressive with capacity deployment. more


Update: Willis prices WEST VII engine ABS

Engine lessor Willis Lease Finance Corporation (Willis) has priced its $410-million engine ABS last week. more


ESG Five: Ireland gets lessor-backed SAF study, EU NZIA to include SAF support, and more…

This update’s key stories include the unveiling of a much-awaited SAF feasibility study in Ireland backed by Boeing, Avolon, and Orix Aviation, and the tentative inclusion of SAF in the EU’s response to the US IRA – the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA). more


Remarketing Watch Data Sheet: A320ceo availability drops following GTF A320neo inspection announcements

This Data Sheet provides a snapshot of aircraft currently being remarketed on three of the main remarketing sites. more


15-year-old aircraft values, EasyJet's 157 narrowbody order, BOC Aviation signs $1.375 billion club term loan

Welcome to the 111th ‘Extra’ supplement to Ishka’s Transaction Economics platform, delivering ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on aircraft values and lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter in today’s aviation environment. more


Briefing: An early look at the Poseidon-inspired aviation standard set to launch in January

Ishka speaks with the RMI Centre for Climate-Aligned Finance and one of the Aviation CAF Working Group members, Crédit Agricole CIB, to distill the progress of the past 18 months and what lies ahead. more


Lessor order books: AerCap takes bulk of September deliveries, no new lessor orders

Ishka provides updates on confirmed lessor order books with Airbus and Boeing as of 30th September. more


ESG Five: SMBC AC debuts sust-linked loan, Spain’s proposed domestic flight ban, and more…

This update’s key stories include a leasing first in SMBC Aviation Capital’s five-year $150 million sustainability-linked loan, how a new NGO report in Spain could propel proposals for a French-inspired partial domestic flight ban. more


Quick take: Lessors settle with Russian insurer, investors’ concerns over Israel

Russian insurance firm NSK has made pay-outs to leasing firms CDB Aviation and SMBC Aviation Capital in relation to claims for aircraft previously on lease to Russian flag carrier Aeroflot. more


OEM update: 737 MAX deliveries continue to fall amid rumours of increased bulkhead inspections

737 MAX deliveries fell again in September, bringing down Boeing's monthly output average to 23 for Q3. Ishka reviews key issues facing the two OEMs. more


Willis looks to break aviation’s ABS dry spell with WEST VII

Engine lessor Willis Lease Finance Corporation (Willis) has returned to the public ABS market with a $410-million engine securitisation, making it the first aviation issuer to return to the public ABS market in more than 16 months. more


Chinese Tier 2 airlines recover in H1 2023 but net profits remain elusive

Spring Airlines, Juneyao Air, Hainan Airlines and Lucky Air all reported strong traffic recovery over the course of 2023, generating exceptionally high operating cash flows in H1 2023. All remained profitable at an operating level, however only Spring Airlines recorded a healthy net profit more


ESG Five: Final approval of ReFuelEU Aviation, KGAL makes the leap into SAF, and more…

This update’s key stories include the final approval of ReFuelEU Aviation and German fund manager KGAL making a leap into SAF via its new Article 9 green hydrogen fund. more


Airline state aid repayments slow in Q3 2023, but signs of more to come

Ishka estimates that 32 airlines globally have repaid approximately $55.79 billion of state aid debt from a total of $98.53 billion borrowed since 2020, a modest increase of $1.225 billion since Ishka’s last update on 29th June 2023. more


Naked and stub-leased aircraft in demand as investors navigate ‘extensions boom’

Lessors say they are experiencing a lease ‘extensions boom’ – a dramatic rise in lease extension requests from airlines for current-tech aircraft due to the limited number of available aircraft - which is shaping the secondary aircraft trading market. more


10-year-old aircraft values, CFM says 126 engines may have 'fake' parts, OEMs' October order flurry

Welcome to the 110th ‘Extra’ supplement to Ishka’s Transaction Economics platform, delivering ‘the Ishka View’ on events that have a bearing on aircraft values and lease rates, and the market dynamics that matter in today’s aviation environment. more


ESG Five: Disclosure coming for Californian lessors, UK ETS cuts allowances, and more…

This update’s key stories include California Governor Gavin Newsom intending to sign off corporate climate disclosure rules, which could require California-based lessors to disclose Scope 3 emissions. more


Lessors believe GTF issues extend to A220s and E2 Jets

Hundreds of A320neos are set to be grounded over the next three years as Pratt is forced to inspect its PW1100G engines due to faults regarding powdered metal used across several of its components. Ishka reviews what this means for aircraft lessors. more


Chinese Big 3 remain loss-making in H1 2023, Cathay Pacific makes strong recovery

The Big 3 Chinese airlines remained loss-making in the first half of 2023 although they significantly narrowed their year-on-year losses. Cathay Pacific posts best H1 profit since 2010. more


Lessor CEOs: High interest rates here for the 'foreseeable', while lease rates play catch-up

The high-interest rate environment is likely to persist for some time, agreed a panel of lessor CEOs on the second day of October’s ISTAT EMEA conference in London. more


Asset managers survey: Returns drop for current and new-tech widebodies, but investors insist on higher ‘floor’ for narrowbodies

Both new-tech and current-tech widebodies have seen a decline in expected unlevered returns in the last six months, according to Ishka’s latest aircraft asset managers survey, a sign that investors and lessors have increased confidence in the demand for larger aircraft. more