Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.

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European lessors warn up to 80% of lessees demanding rent holidays

Many European lessors are seeing up to 80% of their airline clients ask for rental holidays, according to leasing sources, as scores of carriers seek to preserve cash. more

03/04/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aviation financings , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19: Airline demands vs government support (2nd April)

Ishka estimates that governments are preparing or executing up to $77.9 billion in bailouts for airlines around the world. more

02/04/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Buyers cite EOD clauses to walk away from aircraft deals

Buyers are walking away from nearly completed sales of leased aircraft, explain lessors, as the fall-out of the Covid-19 crisis is causing several deals involving millions of dollars of leased aircraft and engines to fall apart. more

01/04/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Viral Capital: Airlines access $2 billion of additional debt a day

Airlines have raised or drawn down another $13.6 billion of debt in the past week – equal to nearly $2 billion of fresh debt a day, a figure that only includes publicly disclosed facilities. more

31/03/2020

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

US airlines bailout: What does the fine print say?

A $58 billion bailout for US airlines was signed into law by President Donald Trump on 27th March as part of the CARES Act. Ishka examines the provisions for state aid to US air carriers. more

30/03/2020

in Airline Profiles , Regulatory and Accounting , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19: Spreads widen on non-Chinese lessor bonds

An analysis of around 270 actively trading lessor bonds shows that spreads are widening for many of the notes issued by the US publicly listed lessors. more

27/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Covid-19: Airline demands vs government support (26th March)

Ishka updates and expands last week’s summary of airline demands for state support and bailout offers by governments around the world. more

26/03/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Aviation banks retreat to top airlines and say margins have doubled

Aviation banks are still open for business, say financiers, but terms have changed and financing institutions are only supporting existing clients, and key airlines. more

25/03/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Viral Capital: Airlines, lessors draw down billions of debt in days

Airlines and lessors have rushed to the debt markets seeking liquidity as the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on their revenue streams. more

24/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19: China domestic recovery only green shoot in Asia-Pacific

Is Covid-19 recovery in China, South Korea and Singapore translating into an air traffic revival? Not quite - only China’s domestic market for now. more

23/03/2020

in Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor portfolio trades in limbo as Covid-19 crisis hits

Lessors indicate that the vast bulk of new aircraft lease placements with airlines have been stopped as carriers ground their fleets to minimise capacity as the Covid-19 pandemic unravels. more

20/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19: Airline demands vs government support

Ishka provides a summary of the demands by airlines for state assistance and the current levels of government support and bailouts on offer. more

19/03/2020

in Airline Profiles , Regulatory and Accounting , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19: Will African, Middle Eastern airlines survive on state-backing?

Many of the top airlines in both Africa and the Middle East have some form of state backing – a distinct advantage as commercial passenger aviation grinds to a halt across the globe. more

19/03/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19: Brazil extends airline aid as Latin America closes borders

Brazilian airlines are set to receive government aid as countries in Latin America rush to close their borders. more

18/03/2020

in Airline Profiles

Coronavirus likely to “test” ABS servicers

Multiple airline requests for rent deferrals and the stress placed on the airline industry globally as air traffic volumes drops could place a strain on aircraft ABS servicers. more

17/03/2020

in Capital Markets

GECAS CEO: Coronavirus could cause more lessor acquisitions

Greg Conlon sits down with Ishka to talk about his transition into the CEO role, Alec Burger’s new role as chairman, coronavirus and ABS. more

16/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

A year without the MAX

Ishka reviews how lessors and Boeing's stock have been reacting to the continued MAX grounding. more

13/03/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

European airlines including Norwegian to be hit hard by US travel ban

A US-imposed 30-day travel ban on passenger flights from European Schengen countries is due to worsen the prospects for around 30 European and North American carriers. more

12/03/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Q4 review: Aircastle sees improvement ahead of acquisition

Aircastle finished 2019 with a solid recovery from the impactful demise of two of its biggest lessees in preparation for its merger with affiliates of Marubeni and Mizuho Leasing. more

11/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Trading gains: Public lessor aircraft sales since 2016

Ishka reviews the trading gains of the public lessors since 2016. more

10/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

ISTAT Austin: Are lessors too relaxed about coronavirus?

Ishka offers key takeaways from the ISTAT Americas 2020 conference in Austin. more

09/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

ISTAT Lessor CEOs: Covid rent deferrals “does not mean blank cheques”

The CEOs of five of the world’s largest aircraft lessors say they are ready to help airline customers weather the Covid-19 travel slump, but not unreservedly. more

06/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Modelling and Forecasting

Flybe finally folds

Regional airline Flybe went into administration on 5th March, with lessors already moving to repossess their aircraft and leaving questions around the airline’s valuable Heathrow slots. more

05/03/2020

in Airline Profiles

Fly caps off 2019 selling spree with record results

Fly Leasing posted record financial results in Q4 2019, primarily driven by gains on aircraft sales as the lessor works to reduce its fleet size. more

04/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

White paper: Lessons from historical airline defaults

In a guest white paper, Ed Hansom and JJ O’Toole from Sirius Aviation Capital note the lack of data when examining airline defaults and provide a methodology to create an estimate for historical airline default rates. Their research validates many of the portfolio strategies adopted by lessors to mitigate airline risk. more

03/03/2020

in Airline Profiles

Kenya Airways: Minimal rebound from restructuring

In this Airline Credit Profile, Ishka reviews Kenya Airways, the country’s flag carrier which continues to struggle despite its 2017 financial restructuring. more

02/03/2020

in Airline Profiles

Lessor CEOs: Navigating the coronavirus crisis

Ishka reviews some of the key market concerns raised by the public aircraft lessors – AerCap, Aircastle, Air Lease Corporation and Fly Leasing – in their latest earning calls, including the rising impact of the coronavirus on their lessees. more

28/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Coronavirus: South Korean airlines take further financial hit

Airlines in South Korea with already debilitated financials are seeing their situation deteriorate due to the coronavirus outbreak. Ishka examines developments at Eastar Jet and Asiana. more

27/02/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

A320neo lease rates: Airlines reach new ‘high highs and low lows’

Airlines are benefitting from extremely attractive low lease rate factors for new A320neos as both lessors with direct orders from the manufacturers and lessors participating in the sale-leaseback market compete to win deals. more

26/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

EU to add aviation investments to green taxonomy

EU bodies are looking to add aviation to its upcoming green taxonomy, which regulates what debt and public equity investments can be marketed as sustainable to European investors. more

25/02/2020

in Regulatory and Accounting , Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

AerCap ends 2019 with surge in sales

AerCap finished Q4 2019 with a surge in aircraft sales, helping it improve key portfolio metrics and boost dividends. more

24/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

ALC books bumper Q4 trading gains

ALC is celebrating its tenth anniversary with a strong close to 2019. The lessor made good on promises to concentrate trading gains in H2 2019 and is offering sale-leasebacks with Chinese carriers wrestling with the impacts of Covid-19. more

21/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

CDB Aviation transitions its CEO

In an in-depth interview, newly-promoted CDB Aviation CEO Pat Hannigan tells Ishka how the aircraft lessor is on the hunt for both more talent and investment opportunities in 2020. more

20/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Bailout rumours as coronavirus halves North East Asia capacity

Ishka examines the changing landscape for air travel in North East Asia amid the Covid-19 health emergency. more

19/02/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Coronavirus to put pressure on HNA Group airlines' rents

HNA Group airlines have cut delays on lease payments. Financiers are, however, concerned that the coronavirus – which has severely reduced traffic in and out of China – will put pressure on the group’s airlines’ cash flows. more

18/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Airline Profiles

Forecast: 1,001 missing 737 MAXs by year end 2022

Ishka’s head of advisory, Eddy Pieniazek and Dickon Harris explain how the grounding of the 737 MAX grounding, has disrupted aircraft delivery forecasts and aircraft lessors’ plans. more

14/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

M&A: How Japan fell in love with aircraft leasing

Japanese firms have been courting aircraft leasing platforms with increasing fervour in recent years, investing at least $14.4 billion since 2018, according to Ishka calculations. more

13/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Will Qatar Airways help Air Italy’s lessors with their aircraft?

Italian carrier Air Italy ceased operations this week, leaving 12 leased aircraft without an operator. more

12/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

Coronavirus prompts Chinese airlines to seek rental holidays

Chinese airlines are asking lessors for rental holidays to overcome crippled cashflows due to the coronavirus outbreak. more

11/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Airline Profiles

Widebody weakness: Is demand for big aircraft declining?

Ishka looks at capacity trends in the mid-haul and long-haul segments for the past 10 years to see whether widebodies are losing routes to smaller aircraft. more

07/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Current gen engine rents hold steady thanks to MAX grounding

Lease rates for CFM56-5B4, -7B26 and V2527-A5 engines have held firm on the back of constrained narrowbody lift. more

06/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

ATR makes the case for green aircraft financing

ATR is the first commercial aircraft OEM to have delivered an aircraft funded by a green loan. more

04/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

How does coronavirus compare to SARS?

Ishka examines how today’s coronavirus compares to the 2003 SARS outbreak. more

04/02/2020

in Aircraft Finance Market

Carlyle prices first ABS of 2020:AASET 2020-1

Carlyle Aviation (Carlyle) has priced the first aircraft ABS of the year, AASET 2020-1. more

02/02/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Impatient capital: Frustrated funds search for leased aircraft

In a follow up report on the state of the current aircraft leasing market, Ishka examines how aircraft funds are looking at opportunities in the aircraft leasing space. more

31/01/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Boeing takes $18.6bn MAX beating

The OEM now expects the 737 MAX grounding to cost it $18.6 billion as it looks to offer financial support to airlines and suppliers and eventually begin a possible multi-year catch up to pre-grounding production rates. more

30/01/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Lessors trade South African Airways exposure

Lessors with exposure to South African Airways breathed a small sigh of relief after the struggling flag carrier received 3.5 billion rand ($244 million) in emergency funding this week. more

29/01/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles

Outbreak: The airlines most at risk of coronavirus

Airlines are readying themselves for the potential impacts of a new SARS-like virus spreading from China. Ishka reviews those with highest Chinese exposure. more

28/01/2020

in Airline Profiles

Missing MAXs drive Super Sellers’ Market

Grounded 737 MAXs are likely to drive fewer portfolio sales of leased aircraft this year, predict aviation financiers, as aircraft lessors look set to hold onto more of their leased aircraft assets in order to maintain revenue. more

27/01/2020

in Aircraft Finance Market

777-300ER lease rates hold on the back of 777X delay

Lease rates for midlife 777-300ERs have experienced a very slight decrease according to lessors and remarketers speaking with Ishka, contrary to expectations. more

24/01/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Investing in Aviation Finance & Infrastructure: Europe

Stay connected with 5 free Ishka London Digital webcasts with key event speakers. Broadcast at 11am BST (GMT +1) every Wednesday in April

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