Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion

Trusted, expert assessment of the latest industry trends from the respected Ishka team, including regional analysis, airlines, lessors and critical emerging issues.

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Ishka World Tour: A frozen JOLCO market will take time to thaw

The aviation JOLCO market will take one to two years to return to 2019 levels, say Japanese financiers, as airlines worry that that as an avenue for aircraft financing it is effectively “closed” in 2020. more

22/10/2020

in Capital Markets

On Watch: AirAsia X and Norwegian to cut widebodies, SpiceJet faces $27m lessor claims

Long-haul low-cost carriers Norwegian and AirAsia X have in the past two weeks announced plans to trim their widebody fleets to cope with the Covid-19 crisis. more

22/10/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Wizz Air CEO: New opportunities as retreating competitors leave “vacuum”

Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi has reaffirmed the airline’s expansion plans as many of its competitors are “contracting in a big way and creating a market vacuum behind them” due to the effects of Covid-19, creating an opportunity for the low-cost airline. more

21/10/2020

in Airline Profiles

CALC CEO Mike Poon: Chinese lessees fulfill deferral agreements

In an interview with Ishka, CALC CEO Mike Poon credits China’s upturn, a narrowbody focus, and a disciplined approach to leasing as keys to its enviable H1 2020 performance. more

19/10/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Curtain call for AirAsia Japan as Malaysia Airlines issues bankruptcy warning

AirAsia Japan will close its doors on 5th December, the first Japanese carrier to crumble due to coronavirus and under strain from its parent company, AirAsia Group. more

16/10/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Govt support for Malaysia Airlines dims as owner hints at liquidation

The confirmed state aid tally grew by nearly $5 billion since the last update, with the vast majority attributable to state investments in China Eastern Airlines. more

15/10/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Spreads slow to renormalise on active IG lessor bonds

Spreads remain high on pre-crisis levels on all but A-rated aircraft leasing bond issuances, an Ishka analysis of 251 actively trading lessor issuances has found.  more

13/10/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Lessors worry airlines will impose ‘abusive’ PBH contracts

Several carriers have asked lessors in the last few weeks to take power-by-the-hour leasing agreements (PBH) as a means to reduce costs in preparation for a tough winter for passenger traffic. more

12/10/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessor bonds Q3: Fresh issuances double on Q2

Aircraft lessors flooded back to the bond market in Q3 2020. After tepid issuances in Q2, Q3 total new issuances were the highest of the last seven quarters – and over double the previous quarter. more

09/10/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Capital Markets

Malta leverages regulatory changes to attract aircraft lessors

The Government of Malta has tabled in parliament an update to the country’s 2010 Aircraft Registration Act to make itself more appealing to lessors. more

08/10/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Regulatory and Accounting , Investor Education

On Watch: Lion Air demands PBH contracts, Garuda hit by lessor lawsuits

In this week’s On Watch report, Ishka provides updates on airlines from Ishka’s On Watch list, this time focusing on Indonesian carriers Lion Air Group and Garuda Indonesia. more

06/10/2020

in Airline Profiles

Airline bonds Q3 2020: North American issuers move to secured bonds

The pursuit of liquidity by North American carriers drove many to the capital markets again in Q3 2020 with $13.5 billion issued – 63% out of the global $21.4 billion in issuances. more

05/10/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Viral Capital: Airlines tap banks for $33 billion over the summer

Banks may be increasingly selective as to which deals they agree to underwrite but airlines still managed to raise $33 billion of publicly disclosed commercial bank debt between June and September 2020. more

02/10/2020

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets

Covid-19 bailouts: White House proposes $20bn PSP extension, Norwegian potential nationalisation

The ‘second wave’ of state aid for airlines is well underway, with US carriers about to receive an extension to the Payroll Support Programme (PSP). more

01/10/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Lessors explore ECA support for new aircraft deliveries

Aircraft lessors are in discussions with financiers about using export credit agency (ECA) backed debt and supported financing for new aircraft deliveries as debt markets become increasingly selective for aviation credits. more

30/09/2020

in Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Aeromexico pushes 75% of fleet onto power-by-the-hour contracts

In this week’s On Watch report Ishka provides updates on several airlines undergoing bankruptcy proceedings, including Aeromexico, Avianca and LATAM. more

29/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Lessors wait for A220 sale/leaseback opportunities

Sources state that increased market risk and capital deployment limitations are likely to result in higher lease rates when new A220 RFPs do eventually come to market. more

28/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates

NAC CCO on regional aircraft resilience and its debt standstill

NAC's CCO, Jim Murphy, speaks with Ishka on the strength of the regional market, NAC's recent debt standstill and the Dash 8 market. more

25/09/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Lessons in rejection: LATAM’s decision to drop its EETC aircraft

Ishka speaks to two lawyers involved in the issuance of LATAM's 2015-1 EETC to unpack the significance of its rejection. more

24/09/2020

in Airline Profiles , Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Kroll and S&P unveil aircraft ABS September downgrades

Rating agencies Kroll and S&P announced further aircraft ABS downgrades following disappointing August remittance updates by many transactions. more

23/09/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Airlines On Watch: Asiana deal collapses, Kenya mulls 14 aircraft cut

Airlines have been cutting back on fleets consistently since the start of the pandemic. Ishka estimates that airlines on Ishka’s On Watch List have so far removed 119 aircraft from their fleets. more

22/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

High utilisation keeps E175 lease rates buoyant

Strong utilisation by US operators has kept E175 lease rate firm through the pandemic, as activity rates surpass other popular jet types. more

18/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Alitalia gets $235m, KDB throws Asiana $2bn lifeline

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $2.06 billion since last update on 3rd September with the following additions. more

17/09/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

High debt costs eat into aircraft lessor returns

Some lessors may be making lower returns on new sale/leaseback deals than they were pre-Covid because of increased financing costs, according to Ishka research. more

16/09/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: LATAM and Avianca hit DIP financing roadblocks

Ishka updates on airlines in bankruptcy and creditor protection. This week, LATAM and Avianca saw DIP financing proposals rejected and restrained by court orders. more

15/09/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

E190s stave off retirement as carriers clinch cheap lease extensions

The Covid-19 pandemic has extended the operating life of many E190 jets, explain regional jet lessors, many of which were facing a “foul” wave of retirements. more

14/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Investor guide: Aircraft storage in the age of Covid-19

In this investor guide Ishka looks at aircraft storage options: how have storage providers adapted, the process of storing an aircraft and the cost and service considerations. more

10/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Investor Education

Rising airline debt margins attract hedge fund interest

Higher margins and better loan terms on new secured aircraft loans have attracted the attention of hedge funds seeking to offer debt to airlines directly through debt funds and private placements, state financiers. more

09/09/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

Regional carriers receive less than 1% of state aid

Just 0.38% of confirmed and 0.31% of confirmed and unconfirmed state aid has gone to regional carriers as of 28th August, Ishka research shows, a fraction of the billions offered to airlines globally since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis. more

08/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Airbus undelivered aircraft glut shows signs of easing

Airbus and Boeing had nearly 600 built but undelivered aircraft at the end of Q2 2020. This number is now likely to be higher, but the situation at Airbus appears to be improving. more

07/09/2020

in Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Airline Credit Profile: Why is Wizz Air among the best placed airlines to benefit from the COVID-19 crisis?

In this week’s airline credit profile, Ishka highlights how Wizz Air’s financial position has allowed it to take a different approach to the COVID-19 crisis than some of its peers. more

04/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Dubai gives Emirates $2bn, Avianca gets $370m loan

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $2.37 billion. Meanwhile, three major airlines in Norway are reportedly due to have a crisis meeting with the Norwegian government next week. more

03/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: Smartwings in creditor protection, Norwegian at “significant risk” of collapse

Ishka updates on airlines in bankruptcy proceedings and on Ishka's watch list. Norwegian is at “significant risk” of collapse without further creditor agreements, the airline stated in its H1 2020 results. more

02/09/2020

in Airline Profiles

Covid-19 ushers in a nascent 787 and A350 secondary market

Ishka estimates there are up to 22 787s and A350s in the market looking for new operators. more

01/09/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19 bailouts: Trump considers further support for airlines, Thai LCCs to get $769m in loans

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by a mere $15.5 million since last week’s update, the second smallest weekly increase since this series began in March. more

28/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

Fund watch: Icelease signals buying intent with naked aircraft purchase

Reykjavík-based lessor Icelease together with Corrum Capital Management, a private investment firm, have bought a naked 12-year old Boeing 737-800 through their joint venture CCM ICL Leasing LLC. more

26/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

State aid vs revenues: Which airlines have secured generous state aid?

Ishka compares state aid packages for 62 airlines and airline groups against their most recently reported pre-Covid annual revenues. more

25/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

On Watch: EasyFly, Nok Air, Virgin Atlantic make 25 carriers down

EasyFly, Nok Air and Virgin Atlantic joined 22 other airlines or airline groups in forms of bankruptcy protection, insolvency and restructuring this August. more

24/08/2020

in Airline Profiles

Operators, investors “jostling” for place in A321 conversion queue

Investors and operators are paying “hundreds of thousands of dollars” to hold a place in the queue for A321 freighter conversion, say cargo sources. more

21/08/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles

Covid-19 bailouts: Seven carriers get $2.8bn in new and additional aid

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by nearly $2.8 billion over the past two weeks as seven airlines received new or additional state aid. more

20/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

JSA and CDB Aviation test the market with leased aircraft portfolios

Aircraft trading, the normal sale of leased and naked aircraft between lessors, nearly ceased entirely after the immediate onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, Ishka is aware of new activity in the market as lessors begin to test investor appetite for leased aircraft. more

19/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Public lessors Q2: Delayed rents top $700m but requests have ‘peaked’

Air Lease Corporation, Fly Leasing and AerCap have accumulated $702 million in deferred lease payments, but the three firms are optimistic that the worst has now passed. more

17/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Q2 ends Fly’s selling spree as lessor offers longer rent deferrals

Q2 2020 marked the end of Fly Leasing’s (Fly) aircraft selling spree: the lessor recorded no gains on aircraft sale for the first time in nine quarters as the pandemic depressed transaction volumes across the industry. more

14/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

How do Aircraft ABS structures perform if cash flows are reduced due to Covid-19?

In a guest insight Kevin MacLeod, Vedder Price’s Head of the New York Capital Markets Group, examines some of the structural protections prevalent in recent aircraft ABS transactions. more

13/08/2020

in Capital Markets , Investor Education , Market Move

Analysis: DZ Bank mulls new sales process for DVB AIM/AM

DZ Bank is understood to be exploring a new sales process for DVB AIM/AM after a planned merger with Japanese Bank MUFG stalled in the face of US banking regulatory hurdles. more

11/08/2020

in Capital Markets , Aircraft Finance Market

ALC Q2: Deferral repayments “significantly” outstrip fresh forbearance requests

Repayment of deferred aircraft rents now “significantly exceeds” requests by airlines for new support, while greater caution on the part of lessors has led to a fresh insistence upon security deposits and a hike in lease rate factors (LRFs) on sale-leaseback transactions. more

10/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates

Covid-19 bailouts: Trump backs further $25bn for US airlines

The political momentum behind a proposed extension to the US CARES Act payroll support program makes its continuation likely, but the terms and size are yet to be negotiated. more

07/08/2020

in Airline Profiles , Aircraft Finance Market

AerCap Q2 2020: Deferrals slash 12-month cash flow outlook by 26%

The wave of aircraft lease deferrals has cut AerCap’s 12-month cash flow expectation by 26% over the past two quarters from $3.1 billion to $2.3 billion at the end of Q2 2020. more

04/08/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

Boeing cuts output as lessors trim quarter of 737 MAX orders

MAX cancellations have been creeping up at nearly double the monthly 31-aircraft production target. Among those, lessors feature heavily. more

03/08/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Aircraft Finance Market

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