Your indispensible guide to the aviation finance market in 2020

Ishka has analysed key performance metrics within our industry to reveal pressure points and hot spots and delivers a trusted and independent perspective on the outlook for 2020.

Highlights include:

Lease rate factors will remain under downward pressure across the board and ABS issuance will continue unabated

The impact of the re-introduction of 737MAX aircraft on global capacity and utilisation levels is a cause for concern

Flight Shame could lead to new legislation in Europe further adding to airline cost burden

Challenging conditions for European airlines will drive further consolidation and reduce competition

We are delighted to introduce the new edition of Ishka Vista: 2020 Aviation Finance Market Forecast.

Eddy Pieniazek

Eddy Pieniazek

Head of Advisory

These headlines make for difficult reading:

  • “Manufacturers are struggling to get aircraft made.”
  • “Private carriers run into difficulties.”
  • “Airlines are counting on fast-rising passenger numbers.”
  • “Wheels come off an engine of growth.”
  • “Airlines fight threat of increased hedging costs.”

As we head in to 2020, you could be forgiven for thinking these are current headlines. Actually, they are from the Financial Times at the end of 2009, ten years ago. The old adage “the more things change, the more they stay the same” has had a certain truth to it!

However, there is a ‘but’ as far as today is concerned. The next set of changes may result in a different landscape for aviation.

The 2010-2019 decade has in many respects seen the financial appetite for aviation assets taken to its limits. Investors have found aviation to be an alternative asset class that has promised to deliver acceptable returns, and for those priced and structured correctly, the rewards will indeed be acceptable. However, in the coming years it looks like that promise will be tested, especially where investment risk profiles have grown and become increasingly reliant on ‘nothing going wrong’.

Another sector already tested and bruised as a result of the Boeing 737 MAX tragedies, is the regulatory relationship between the aircraft OEMs and the airworthiness and certification authorities.

The rise of the ESG sector in 2019 may also be a precursor to investors revisiting and reviewing how and where they play in the investment space. Air transports’ leaders and guardians need to represent the positive benefits of aviation far more effectively than they have done for many years.

The next ten years are likely to be about fundamentals, with events in the year 2020 firmly in position as a key factor in shaping the next cycle. In which case, fasten your seat belts...


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Section One

Industry signals at the end of 2019 and into 2020

How did the Ishka View for 2019 stand up?

Section Two

External Factors Impacting Aviation Finance

Environmental scrutiny on aviation to grow in 2020

Investor concerns for 2020

Section Three

Airlines and Aircraft - 2020 Vision

Analysis of the ‘Ishka 125’

Specific Market Focus

- Europe creeps towards consolidation

- Stars aligned - Is Vietnam's aviation growth a ‘one-off’?

The end of the first lease - Challenges and opportunities for Chinese lessors

Why are OEMs struggling to build aircraft?

Section Four

Finance in the Spotlight

M&A in aviation banking

Structured credit new issuance – pushing the boundaries?

Further monetary easing: How will it end?

Section Five

How much? Aircraft Values and Lease Rates

How much? Aircraft Values and Lease Rates

Breaking up is hard to do

Section Six

The Ishka View on 2020

get the complete picture

Institutional Investors

You’ve heard from the sell side, now make sure you receive an independent and impartial view on the outlook for the aviation finance market in 2020 to:

  • • Conduct due diligence with confidence with an enhanced understanding of the aviation finance landscape
  • • Recognise country risk, airline risk and aircraft risk with trusted analysis from Ishka’s dedicated team of global analysts
  • • Plan where to focus your resources and make key strategic investments

Banks and Lessors

Leverage Ishka Vista’s data, analysis and expert insight to:

  • • Highlight critical trends and issues that impact your deals and influence your investment decisions in 2020
  • • Credit and risk teams: complement your due diligence and historical data with additional valuable data points and projections
  • • Support, challenge and benchmark in-house views
  • • Underline opportunities and warning signs you may have missed


Utilise Ishka expert analysis to discover and benchmark:

  • • Which markets are primed for growth and which are in decline
  • • The value and pricing of assets
  • • Competitor activity and intelligence gathering


Contact us now to order your copy:

Transaction Economics

Transaction Economics – Aircraft Values and Trading Data

Get real pricing and deals data and dynamic, independent aircraft values from Ishka’s trusted team

Ishka Advisory – Airline Restructuring

We have provided high-level support in business restructuring as well as deep dive analysis on airlines since 1990.

Ishka Insights

Get beyond the headlines with data-driven analysis and the respected Ishka View with Ishka’s daily Insights service