Your indispensible guide to the aviation finance market in 2020
Ishka has analysed key performance metrics within our industry to reveal pressure points and hot spots and delivers a trusted and independent perspective on the outlook for 2020.
Lease rate factors will remain under downward pressure across the board and ABS issuance will continue unabated
The impact of the re-introduction of 737MAX aircraft on global capacity and utilisation levels is a cause for concern
Flight Shame could lead to new legislation in Europe further adding to airline cost burden
Challenging conditions for European airlines will drive further consolidation and reduce competition
These headlines make for difficult reading:
As we head in to 2020, you could be forgiven for thinking these are current headlines. Actually, they are from the Financial Times at the end of 2009, ten years ago. The old adage “the more things change, the more they stay the same” has had a certain truth to it!
However, there is a ‘but’ as far as today is concerned. The next set of changes may result in a different landscape for aviation.
The 2010-2019 decade has in many respects seen the ﬁnancial appetite for aviation assets taken to its limits. Investors have found aviation to be an alternative asset class that has promised to deliver acceptable returns, and for those priced and structured correctly, the rewards will indeed be acceptable. However, in the coming years it looks like that promise will be tested, especially where investment risk proﬁles have grown and become increasingly reliant on ‘nothing going wrong’.
Another sector already tested and bruised as a result of the Boeing 737 MAX tragedies, is the regulatory relationship between the aircraft OEMs and the airworthiness and certiﬁcation authorities.
The rise of the ESG sector in 2019 may also be a precursor to investors revisiting and reviewing how and where they play in the investment space. Air transports’ leaders and guardians need to represent the positive beneﬁts of aviation far more eﬀectively than they have done for many years.
The next ten years are likely to be about fundamentals, with events in the year 2020 ﬁrmly in position as a key factor in shaping the next cycle. In which case, fasten your seat belts...
You’ve heard from the sell side, now make sure you receive an independent and impartial view on the outlook for the aviation finance market in 2020 to:
Leverage Ishka Vista’s data, analysis and expert insight to:
Utilise Ishka expert analysis to discover and benchmark: