advisory
Ishka Vista

2023

Aviation Finance Market Forecast

THE NEW EDITION

Inform your investment strategy and make critical decisions with confidence

Ishka Vista 2023 Aviation Finance Market Forecast, now in its sixth edition, delivers a trusted and independent assessment of the aviation landscape to help identify markets, products and assets offering the greatest return on investment and the best potential for growth in 2023.

I’m delighted to introduce Ishka Vista: 2023 Aviation Finance Market Forecast.

Commercial Aviation is a resilient industry. Well, it has had to be, considering the global events that regularly cross its path.

2022 turned out to be a better year – and it could have been even more so, if not for more global events which have cascaded a series of other issues that are making 2023 a more complex proposition.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is a deeply concerning tragedy of its own, and inevitably its repercussions since Q1 2022 have had an impact on the wider aviation ecosystem, while China, with its large domestic market and one of the drivers of global GDP, struggled to manage its exposure to COVID, as a result of which its airlines have underperformed both domestically in 2022 and also abroad.

These and other global economic events have helped create a mixed bag of other impacts on the commercial aviation world – a rise in inflation, volatile jet fuel prices, energy and commodity price hikes, a rise in interest rates, and supply chain performance. There has also been an element of escalation in new aircraft/engine pricing.

Some of these factors are contributing to a ‘cost of living’ crisis that is beginning to impact on discretionary spend in many developed world markets. Nevertheless, airlines are currently saying that forward bookings are holding up.

With a fair wind, 2023 can build on 2022 results, with some airlines continuing to repair balance sheets and registering healthy revenues and operating profits, especially in the US. Analysis also suggests that lessors have been recovering some of their deferred rentals, but they have been flexible where necessary with the more sensitive and fragile credits. Lessor and Asset Manager consolidation did continue into 2022, and 2023 won’t be an exception either.

Aviation financiers also became increasingly selective in whom and in what they were prepared to finance. In 2023, they will also have to account for fast moving inflation, escalation, and interest rate environments. The good news is that the much talked about ‘pent-up demand’ has been a consistent theme and where markets have opened and returned, so have the passengers.

Segments of the industry may experience more short-term pain in 2023 in the quest for the promise of long-term gain, but there are many positives already visible in the meantime from the speed and scale of the recovery.

Eddy Pieniazek

Eddy Pieniazek

Head of Advisory

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Section One

2022: More disruptions overshadow the progress made

The Ishka View on 2022

Section Two

External Factors Impacting Aviation Finance

State Aid

How are the Lessors and market in general assessing the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict

Section Three

Airlines and Aircraft - A Recovery in Progress

Analysis of the ‘Ishka 160’

ESG Summary

Cargo demand and P2F Conversions

Production Rates - Governed by the Supply Chain

Deliveries in 2023

Section Four

Finance in the Spotlight - Show Me the Money

Aviation Financing Outlook 2023

Section Five

Aircraft Values and Lease Rates

The Narrowbody Values and Lease Rates - A bounceback in a competitive market

Base Value Review - Taking Stock in an Evolving Market

Section Six

The Ishka View

Supply and demand - The stored/parked fleet - an investment too far to bring them back?

The Ishka View for 2023

get the complete picture

Institutional InvestorsInstitutional Investors

You’ve heard from the sell side, now make sure you receive an independent and impartial view on the outlook for the aviation finance market in 2023 to:

  • Analyse the market and define new opportunities in a turbulent market
  • Perform commercial due diligence services for acquisitions or investments in airlines and operators, lessors and suppliers
  • Achieve superior risk and reward profiles in accordance with specific investment objectives
  • Pitch, initiate and authenticate deals: Ishka instructs how to identify and target prospects which meet specific investment criteria
  • Understand risk and reward: expert intelligence on effectively monitoring exposure and actively managing risk in a dynamic global market

Banks and LessorsBanks and Lessors

Leverage Ishka Vista’s data, analysis and expert insight to:

  • Highlight critical trends and issues that impact your deals and influence your investment decisions in 2023
  • Credit and risk teams: complement your due diligence and historical data with additional valuable data points and projections
  • Support, challenge and benchmark in-house views
  • Underline opportunities and warning signs you may have missed

AirlinesAirlines

Utilise Ishka expert analysis to discover and benchmark:

  • Which markets are primed for growth and which are in decline
  • The value and pricing of assets
  • Competitor activity and intelligence gathering

Service ProvidersService Providers

Receive an independent perspective on the prospects, on-going challenges and opportunities for commercial aviation in 2023:

  • Plan where to focus your resources
  • Understand which markets are primed for growth and which are in decline
  • Underline opportunities and warning signs you may have missed

Order your copy of Ishka’s independent 2023 market forecast today

Noriko Nozaki
Noriko Nozaki

Japan and Korea

Call +81 3 6205 3086

Email [email protected]

Chris Keene
Chris Keene

Worldwide

Call +44 (0)7703 185 579

Email [email protected]

Martin Di Fede
Martin Di Fede

Americas

Call +1 917-822-4925

Email [email protected]