Ishka Insights: indispensable analysis and opinion
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Airbus undelivered aircraft glut shows signs of easing

Airbus and Boeing had nearly 600 built but undelivered aircraft at the end of Q2 2020. This number is now likely to be higher, but the situation at Airbus appears to be improving. more

07/09/2020

in Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Top 100 airlines: LCCs and large domestic carriers fare better in crisis

No airline is immune to the Covid-19 crisis, but some are more resilient than others. Low-cost carriers (LCCs) and operators in large domestic markets appear to be doing better. more

06/07/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa AGM approves aid, KLM rescue unveiled

The approval of the Lufthansa bailout package by shareholders this week dissipated fears that the airline could be forced into insolvency. more

26/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

EU ‘reopening’ leads tepid international travel reactivation

Beyond a few regional pockets of travel activity, international air travel remains stymied by health regulations and travel restrictions. more

23/06/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Airline fleet phase-outs affect up to half of 767s and A340s

A growing number of airlines are trimming their fleets as they reconsider their capacity needs in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. more

15/06/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa gets aid, Latin America rethinks support

A €9 billion Lufthansa bailout makes Germany the second-largest provider of state aid to airlines as Chile and Colombia consider supporting bankrupt LATAM and Avianca. more

28/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Covid-19 bailouts: Lufthansa in ‘advanced talks’ for bailout (21st May)

The tally of confirmed bailouts grew by $1.34 billion from the previous week, but Germany edged closer to an agreement for a $9.7bn 'stabilisation package' for Lufthansa. more

21/05/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Domestic resilience: Which airlines and aircraft stand to benefit?

Commercial air traffic has begun a slow recovery, raising the question of which airlines and aircraft will be best positioned in the new environment. more

18/05/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Covid-19: Airline demands vs government support (26th March)

Ishka updates and expands last week’s summary of airline demands for state support and bailout offers by governments around the world. more

26/03/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Covid-19: China domestic recovery only green shoot in Asia-Pacific

Is Covid-19 recovery in China, South Korea and Singapore translating into an air traffic revival? Not quite - only China’s domestic market for now. more

23/03/2020

in Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

ISTAT Lessor CEOs: Covid rent deferrals “does not mean blank cheques”

The CEOs of five of the world’s largest aircraft lessors say they are ready to help airline customers weather the Covid-19 travel slump, but not unreservedly. more

06/03/2020

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Modelling and Forecasting

Bailout rumours as coronavirus halves North East Asia capacity

Ishka examines the changing landscape for air travel in North East Asia amid the Covid-19 health emergency. more

19/02/2020

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Forecast: 1,001 missing 737 MAXs by year end 2022

Ishka’s head of advisory, Eddy Pieniazek and Dickon Harris explain how the grounding of the 737 MAX grounding, has disrupted aircraft delivery forecasts and aircraft lessors’ plans. more

14/02/2020

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

How the 737 MAX grounding has helped rationalise capacity

The following is an excerpt from Ishka’s VISTA 2020: our new forecast for the year ahead. more

29/12/2019

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Future deliveries update: Asia-Pacific

Ishka provides a guide to aircraft scheduled for delivery to airlines in Asia-Pacific over the next 24 months. more

20/12/2019

in Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

737 MAX production halted: what are the effects?

Boeing announced late on 16th December that it will temporarily suspend production of the 737 MAX beginning in January. more

17/12/2019

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market , Market Move

Future deliveries update: North America and Latin America

Ishka provides a guide to aircraft scheduled for delivery to airlines in North America and Latin America over the next 24 months. more

11/12/2019

in Modelling and Forecasting

MROs expect aircraft retirement ‘jump’ in 2020

After several years of reduced part-out activity, lessors and the MRO industry are preparing for a hike in the number of aircraft retirements in 2020. more

21/10/2019

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Lessors and Lease Rates , Modelling and Forecasting

ACG sources Korean equity for second ABS

Aviation Capital Group (ACG) has priced a second ABS, the $477 million MACH 1 USA. more

16/10/2019

in Capital Markets , Modelling and Forecasting

Aircraft OEM 20-year outlooks: How do they differ?

Ishka reviews year-on-year changes to the outlooks of Airbus, Boeing and COMAC. more

11/10/2019

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting

Could the A220 become the third ‘liquid’ narrowbody?

A year after being acquired by Airbus the A220, née Bombardier CSeries, has racked up a series of new orders and a growing numbers of prospects. more

13/09/2019

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

The unsustainably low level of aircraft retirements

Ishka examines the depressed level of aircraft retirements. more

30/08/2019

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Modelling and Forecasting

A321neo delivery delays worsening in 2019

Airbus A321neo delivery delays have worsened in 2019 despite the OEM’s efforts to ramp up production. more

20/08/2019

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Will an EU fuel tax push airlines towards new-tech aircraft?

With efforts to tax aviation fuel gaining traction across the EU, Ishka examines the impact that kerosene taxes could have on aircraft demand. more

04/07/2019

in Regulatory and Accounting , Modelling and Forecasting

Ishka’s predictions for the 2019 Paris Air Show

Ishka looks at what could be in store at the 2019 Paris Air Show: from major announcements from Airbus to PR damage mitigation at Boeing. more

10/06/2019

in Modelling and Forecasting

MAX grounding Q1 costs for top operators just tip of the iceberg

The Q1 results of top MAX operators covered less than three weeks of the grounding. Ishka believes Q2 results will reveal greater costs. more

07/06/2019

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

How are airlines coping with the MAX grounding?

Ishka examines the level of optimism hinted by other airline schedules, the impact of the immediate MAX order backlog on operators, and how large and small airlines exposed to the type are reacting. more

05/04/2019

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Don't underestimate the impact of IFRS 16 on airline balance sheets

In January a new accounting standard, IFRS 16, which puts operating leases on an airline’s balance sheet came into effect. Colin Sach, an aviation corporate finance adviser asks how the new accounting standard could impact airline fleet management. more

22/02/2019

in Regulatory and Accounting , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Jet Airways’ difficulties signal tough year for Indian airlines

Indian airlines had a tough year in 2018. A mixture of capacity growth, rising costs and fierce competition has put pressure on yields and margins. more

13/02/2019

in Airline Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

Will lessors and lenders stick to their New Year resolutions?

Aircraft lessors and financiers indicate a greater resolve in trying to preserve returns for 2019. more

29/01/2019

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

So, how did we do? Ishka reviews its 2018 Vista forecast

Ishka assess whether its predictions for 2018 came to pass. more

18/01/2019

in Modelling and Forecasting

Future deliveries update: Asia

Ishka provides a guide to aircraft scheduled for delivery to airlines in Asia over the next 24 months from the five main manufacturers: Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer. more

11/10/2018

in Modelling and Forecasting

Future deliveries update: The Americas

Ishka reviews the aircraft delivery schedule for the next two years for North, Central and South America. more

18/09/2018

in Modelling and Forecasting

Future deliveries update: Africa and Middle East

Ishka reviews the aircraft delivery schedule for the next two years for Africa and the Middle East. more

11/09/2018

in Aircraft Asset Profiles , Modelling and Forecasting

A380 KG investors eke out minimal returns

As the first Airbus A380 is set to be scrapped, German KG retail investors have finally got more clarity on what their total returns may look like. more

23/08/2018

in Lessors and Lease Rates , Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting

Airlines maintain capacity discipline as traffic picks up in 2017

Ishka looks at the key themes impacting air passenger traffic during 2017. more

08/03/2018

in Modelling and Forecasting

European aircraft deliveries update: Airbus and Boeing

In an update to a series of reports published in June 2017, Ishka provides a guide to planned aircraft deliveries for both Airbus and Boeing built aircraft destined for European carriers extending to the end of 2018. more

14/11/2017

in Aviation financings , Modelling and Forecasting

Irma, Maria and Talim disrupt traffic growth in Q3 2017

Ishka looks at the key themes influencing air passenger traffic in calendar Q3 2017. more

10/11/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Untested: non U.S. EETCs in bankruptcy

Ishka takes a closer look at the creditor protections for Norwegian’s EETC. more

06/11/2017

in Regulatory and Accounting , Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Investor guide: Understanding aircraft depreciation

In a quick primer, Ishka presents an overview of one of the more complex debates currently taking place in aviation—economic life of aircraft, depreciation and residual value assumptions. more

02/08/2017

in Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting

Scope argues low fuel prices here to stay

Ishka examines a research piece from Scope Ratings arguing that oil prices are unlikely to exceed $60 a barrel in the short to medium term which will help to boost aviation credit quality. more

31/07/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Could investors be hit by 5,000 excess aircraft?

Ishka examines what might happen to the world’s stored fleet in a downturn. more

24/07/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Future financing forecast: Airbus and Boeing Asian carriers

In the fourth installment of a series of reports, Ishka provides an approximate guide to which carriers within Asia and Australasia are set to receive aircraft from both Boeing and Airbus over the next 18 months. more

04/07/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting , Aircraft Finance Market

Future financing forecast: Airbus and Boeing EMEA carriers

In the third part of a series of reports Ishka provides an approximate guide to which carriers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa are set to receive aircraft from both Boeing and Airbus over the next 18 months. more

23/06/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Future deliveries update: Airbus and Boeing Americas

In the second of a series of reports Ishka provides a rough guide to planned aircraft deliveries for both Airbus and Boeing for North and Latin American carriers over the next 18 months. more

20/06/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Future deliveries update: Bombardier and Embraer

As part of a new series of Insights Ishka provides a rough guide to the planned aircraft deliveries for both Bombardier and Embraer globally for the next 18 months. more

19/06/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

What could a downturn mean for aircraft values?

In a guest Insight piece Goshawk’s Head of Strategy Konrad Blocher models an aviation downturn based on historical data to see how lease rates and aircraft values migh be impacted. more

13/06/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Capacity utilisation improves in Q1 2017 but will the trend continue?

Ishka examined the traffic and capacity growth trends during the first three months of 2017 and found that the year has started-off with a positive note. more

22/05/2017

in Modelling and Forecasting

Will capacity growth outstrip air traffic?

Looking at recent air passenger traffic trends since 2013 Ishka examines how aircraft capacity appears to rising faster than passenger traffic. more

24/02/2017

in Investor Education , Modelling and Forecasting

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Transaction Economics – Aircraft Values and Trading Data

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Ishka Advisory – Airline Restructuring

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